436
FXUS65 KSLC 161256
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
656 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1029 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE SANPETE
AND SEVIER VALLEYS AS WELL AS EASTERN JUAB AND MILLARD COUNTIES
TONIGHT.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER 0.50-1.50
INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES (OR EVEN MORE)
FOR AREAS THAT DO WELL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1029 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD. MEANWHILE, THE CONTINUED VERY ACTIVE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES
(SIMON AND TRUDY). AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WESTWARD, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM SIMON
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY. PW ANOMALIES FROM THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 90-95TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. WHILE IT IS MID-OCTOBER,
IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH PVA
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOP OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE WEST, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) ARE
AVERAGING AROUND 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
SOME AREAS THAT DO WELL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW (NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT,
PROVO CANYON, SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS) LIKELY SEEING MORE THAN 2
INCHES. AS FAR AS SNOW, WHILE IT'S OVER SEVERAL DAYS, LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES, MAINLY ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET.
GOING FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. NO
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 20Z, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. A MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER, AREAS AROUND KSGU THROUGH KCDC WILL SEE
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PEAK WINDS IN THIS AREA
WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25-30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 403 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO GRADUALLY RISE WHILE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. A DRYING
OF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VALLEYS BY SATURDAY. AN IMPULSE OF
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTION OF SOUTHERN UTAH WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SETS
ITS CROSSHAIRS ON THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN REGION. ANTICIPATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
UTAH BY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND AS LATE AS THURSDAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ116-118-119.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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