237
FXUS65 KSLC 161727
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1127 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY TUESDAY ON
INTO THE WEEKEND. TOTAL WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN AROUND 0.50-1.50",
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 2.00-2.50" OR SO.
DISCUSSION
MORNING WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING EXTENDING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A BROAD CUTOFF LOW SWIRLS NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING. FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL AND CASTLE
COUNTRY WHERE HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE BROAD CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS
LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NUDGING UPWARDS
SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL START TO PUSH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AFTER AN
OVERNIGHT LULL, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.
A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE PACNW ON TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS FEATURE
GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES MEAN PWAT
ANOMALIES GENERALLY PUSH INTO THE 150-200% OF NORMAL RANGE (AI ECM
LOCALLY UP TO 250% ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION). THAT SAID,
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING, LIKELY OWING TO THE
CUTOFF NATURE OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH, THE GENERAL PATTERN
WOULD CONTAIN ENHANCED UPPER AND MIDLEVEL SUPPORT, WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST WATER
AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED MARKEDLY, WITH GENERAL STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) OF AROUND 0.50" TO 1.50". LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY 2.00" TO 2.50" ARE NOTED IN SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME.
WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE OF THE LOW, THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD
AIR TAP, WITH 700 MB TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 0C TO -3C LATER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS IN. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FT UNTIL THEN, ONLY GRADUALLY FALLING TO
AROUND 8500-9500 FT AS THE MODESTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS IN
TURN DO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE ORDER OF 4-12" OR SO IN
SOME OF THAT HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION, ISSUED 656 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 20Z, REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. A MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER, AREAS AROUND KSGU THROUGH KCDC WILL
SEE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PEAK WINDS IN THIS
AREA WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25-30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
THE AREA, HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, THOUGH WILL NUDGE UPWARDS FOR SATURDAY. A GRAZING SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BY TUESDAY A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN, GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND THEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO UTAH. FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS TUESDAY
ON THROUGH FRIDAY ARE ROUGHLY 0.50" TO 1.50", WITH LOCALLY UP TO
2.00" TO 2.50" IN SOME OF THE FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY ON INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO
DROP TO ROUGHLY 8500-9500 FEET, ALLOWING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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