852
FXUS65 KSLC 180103
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
703 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1011 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS ARE AROUND
0.50" TO 1.50", WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OR SO IN FAVORED HIGH
TERRAIN.
- MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3" TO 8" WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9500 FT OR SO AS SNOW LEVELS DIP THURSDAY INTO LATE
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1011 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MUCH LIKE FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND
5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UTAH,
AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AROUND A CUTOFF
LOW, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY GET TUGGED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN JET. LOW END (~10-30%) SHOWER
CHANCES THEN CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, PWAT ANOMALIES TO AROUND
200% OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED THREAT OF A
COUPLE CELLS WITH MORE MODERATE RAIN RATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HAVE INTRODUCED "POSSIBLE" RATINGS
IN THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO BRYCE CANYON, CAPITOL REEF, THE
GRAND STAIRCASE, AND ZION, AND PRIMARILY FOR THE MORE RAIN
SENSITIVE BASINS IN THOSE AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS THE LOW FURTHER EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM.
TUESDAY ONWARD WILL SEE THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF
ANOTHER BROAD LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEFORE GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW EXACTLY
THIS TRANSPIRES, WITH SOME MEMBERS NOW SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY. BROADLY SPEAKING THOUGH, AMPLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (EXCLUDING WEDNESDAY IF THE
DRY SLOT DEVELOPS). CHANCES LIKELY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAMES AS ENSEMBLES FAVOR THAT WINDOW FOR
WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE WINDOW WHERE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
SHIFTS IN, AND SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ABOVE 10000 FT DROP TO AROUND
8000-8500 FT AND ALLOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF MODEST HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW ACCUMULATION. FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.50-1.50" OR SO, AND
UP TO AROUND 2.00" IN FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN. GIVEN LIMITED COLD
AIR, FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE AROUND 3-8" FOR ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY ABOVE 9500 FT.
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 02-03Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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