833
FXUS65 KSLC 181334
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
734 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1036 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS ARE AROUND
0.50" TO 1.50", WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.00" OR SO IN FAVORED HIGH
TERRAIN.
- MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3" TO 6" WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9500 FT OR SO AS SNOW LEVELS DIP THURSDAY INTO LATE
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1036 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FAR SOCAL
COAST CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH ARIZONA AHEAD OF
IT. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE IS NOTED
OVER/NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THIS EVENING.
AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO FALL APART SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WEAK VORT
LOBES ARE PROGGED TO EJECT INTO UTAH. OTHERWISE, THE BULK OF THE
REMNANT ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
BUT WEAK DYNAMICS, EXPECT MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR DISORGANIZED
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST BY TUESDAY.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS STORM. THE UPPER JET AIDING THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL MOVE OUT BY WEDNESDAY, AND WITH THE UPPER LOW
STILL POSITIONED OFF THE COAST, WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ON
THURSDAY AND ACROSS UTAH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
MAY CATCH PORTIONS OF UTAH DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, AS
COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER, POTENTIALLY FALLING TO AS LOW AS 8KT. HOWEVER, SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE EVENTUAL SNOW LEVELS, WHICH COULD REMAIN ABOVE 9KFT
BASED ON SOME SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL, THE NBM HAS A GENERAL 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF QPF IN THE
MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AROUND HALF OF THAT
IN MOST VALLEYS. THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST WILL BE TRICKIER DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW LEVEL UNCERTAINTIES, BUT THE CURRENT NBM HAS
2-7 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGELINES (GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FT).
BEYOND FRIDAY, GREATER MODELS SPREAD EXISTS. WHILE MANY SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AROUND 55% OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SOME REMNANT TROUGHINESS HANGING BACK
OVER UTAH (SOMETHING WHICH HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY FAVORED BY THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, COMPARED TO THE DRIER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE EC AND A
MINORITY OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD UNDER INCREASING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND 20-21Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, MOVING INTO EAST-CENTRAL UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...GFECRON
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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