780
FXUS65 KSLC 181903
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
103 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5-1.0"
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.0-2.5".
- THE LATE WEEK STORM WILL ALSO BRING MODEST SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH 3-6" POSSIBLE
MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET.
DISCUSSION
OVERALL BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH, COURTESY OF A
MODEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WHICH
WILL FAVOR A BIT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL YIELD ENHANCED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 MPH.
AN EFFICIENT TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM,
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN UTAH AND RESULTING IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FAVOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PHASES WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, CONSOLIDATING MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THIS AREA. AS SUCH, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH GRADUALLY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 10500-11000
FEET THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH,
MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH, WITH 3-6" EXPECTED GENERALLY ABOVE 9500 FEET.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS THAT AIDS OUR SOIL
MOISTURES BEFORE HEADING INTO WINTER. FLOODING WILL STILL BE A
THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR SENSITIVE TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THIS PERIOD. ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 0.5-1.0", AND A 25% CHANCE TO EXCEED
1.0-2.0". ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 0.2-0.6", AND A 25% CHANCE
TO EXCEED 0.6-1.2". HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS
CLOSE TO 3".
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD UNDER INCREASING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
BEFORE SWITCHING TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-
21Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LIGHTNING, SOME
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND A BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURITY WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LIGHTNING, SOME ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND A
BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURITY IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...TEKOE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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