656
FXUS65 KSLC 190645
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1245 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1034 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5-1.5"
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.0-2.5".
- THE LATE WEEK STORM WILL ALSO BRING MODEST SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH 3-6" POSSIBLE
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1034 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS ARIZONA
LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIFT ACROSS ARIZONA ON MONDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLIER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM HAS
LARGELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING BEHIND SOME PATCHY STRATUS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY, EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONFINED OVER/NEAR
THE SPINE OF UTAH.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE OVER UTAH AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SLIDES
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY OWING TO UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A BIT OF
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDAFTERNOON BEFORE
PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS UTAH ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. EASTERN
UTAH, ESPECIALLY, LOOKS TO CATCH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MOISTURE
PLUME ORIGINATING NEAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE TRUDY. AS
SUCH, MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF 0.5 TO OVER 1 INCH OF QPF IN THE VALLEYS
AND 1 TO OVER 2 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING WITH THE LOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC BRING H7 TEMPERATURES
DOWN AS COLD AS -3 TO -5C OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SNOW LEVELS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY REACH 6.5KFT, THOUGH MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8KFT. AROUND 3-6 INCHES STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGELINES OF THE NORTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS (LESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, GIVEN
THAT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LARGELY FAVOR NORTHERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY).
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES. IN PARTICULAR, THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER
FOR SATURDAY, AS IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC, HOWEVER, HAVE
BOTH TRENDED WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1034 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KSLC...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE SWITCHING
TO TYPICAL NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 19-20Z. EXPECT A 10% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AFTER 20Z MONDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE STATE AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
NOT FOUND IN SLCFWFSLC.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...GFECRON
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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