777
FXUS65 KSLC 192001
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
201 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5-1.5"
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.0-2.5".
- THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AND BOTH
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY.
- THE LATE WEEK STORM WILL ALSO BRING MODEST SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH 3-6" POSSIBLE
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT ACROSS ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE, WEAK FORCING AND VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME GENERALLY WEAK
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH (WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH).
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE OVER UTAH AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SLIDES
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TOMORROW ALONG WITH SOME
DEVELOPING UPPER DIFFLUENCE, EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND WESTERN UTAH.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A JET NOSING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH ORIGINS NEAR WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM TRUDY. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO
CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW A BIT FASTER
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO OTHER
RECENT RUNS. AS SUCH, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NBM
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM
FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.
ELSEWHERE, THE NBM HAS UP TO 1 INCH EXCEPT AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN
THE UINTAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS COULD
TREND ON THE STRONGER SIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AND
BOTH SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY OWING TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
ON FRIDAY, THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN UTAH. WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC BRING H7 TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO -3 TO -4C OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SNOW LEVELS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY REACH 6.5KFT, THOUGH MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 8KFT. AROUND 3-6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 9
INCHES IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS AND HIGH UINTAS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND OVER UTAH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 7-10 KFT
PERSISTS. MODELS STILL FAVOR A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
~22Z, BUT MAINTAIN A 20% CHANCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY OR BECOME
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ~02Z TUESDAY.
THERE IS THEN ROUGHLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
TERMINAL ~09-16Z TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
AN EVOLUTION SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD LARGELY BKN CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE ~10-30%
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE ~10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 09-16Z
TUESDAY MORNING. AT ALL TERMINALS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS, ASIDE FROM SOME MODEST GUST POTENTIAL
NEAR PRECIPITATION. WIND DIRECTIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LARGELY
FOLLOW A DIURNALLY NORMAL PATTERN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page