236
FXUS65 KSLC 200457
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1057 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
0.5-1.5" THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2.0-2.5".
- THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AND STATEWIDE
ON THURSDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH.
- THE LATE WEEK STORM WILL ALSO BRING MODEST SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH 3-6" POSSIBLE
MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS
BEEN VISUALLY IMPRESSIVE AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW CIRCULATES AND
MOVES SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN STORY IN UTAH'S WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LATE
THIS EVENING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT, BUT WILL BE LARGELY
UNIMPACTFUL WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF EXPECTED.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO INCH CLOSER LATE
TUESDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. ALONGSIDE UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND JET SUPPORT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED EARLIER WITH THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING AFTER 6AM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH, EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING
TO SOUTHWESTERLY NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE, A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LOW LCLS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
THREAT, PARTICULARLY FOR PRONE AREAS SUCH AS SLOT CANYONS AND
DRY WASHES. BY FRIDAY MORNING, COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
7500-9000FT AS 700-MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO -3C TO -6C BY LATE
FRIDAY. AS SUCH, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ABOVE 9000FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS A BIT
MORE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WASATCH AND UINTAS.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOW,
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO COME.
AVIATION
KSLC...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 02-
03Z. CEILINGS NEAR 7000 FEET WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 TUESDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH OCCASIONALLY LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH
04-06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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