701
FXUS65 KSLC 201856
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1256 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5-1.5"
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LOCAL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3" POSSIBLE.
- THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AND STATEWIDE
ON THURSDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH, AND MUCH OF UTAH ON
THURSDAY.
- THE LATE WEEK STORM WILL ALSO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH
3-6" POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF
THE CA COAST NEAR 130W, WHILE A FETCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION
NORTHWARD. AS THIS UPSTREAM LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND, THIS
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY
LONG-DURATION WINDOW OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE STORM TOTALS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 5" IN
UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE PINE VALLEYS AND AREAS NEAR
BRIAN HEAD. AS SUCH HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM LOW
WEDNESDAY, ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW
LCLS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER DYNAMICS. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND
EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NORTHERN UTAH ASSUMING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, FOCUSING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA,
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8500 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-6 INCHES ABOVE
9000 FEET LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION MAY KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLVES.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE DIURNAL SHIFT TO NW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED TO
22-23Z. CEILINGS NEAR 7000 FEET WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH NO OTHER IMPACT TO
THE TERMINAL EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SE BETWEEN 03-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ117-123>131.
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ120-121.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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