487
WTUS82 KTAE 081512
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-082315-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL142024
1112 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024 /1012 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**PERIPHERAL RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE,
COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL JEFFERSON, COASTAL TAYLOR, COASTAL
WAKULLA, INLAND DIXIE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND LAFAYETTE
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND JEFFERSON AND
MADISON
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE OR ABOUT 570
MILES SOUTHWEST OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER
- 22.7N 88.4W
- STORM INTENSITY 150 MPH
- MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 11 AM EDT, MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE MILTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, IT WILL STILL BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
WE WILL ONLY HAVE PERIPHERAL IMPACTS FROM WIND AND RAIN.
MILTON HAS GROWN SOME SINCE YESTERDAY AFTER UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVERNIGHT AND THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO GROW
LARGER AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS EXPANSION IN THE WIND FIELD WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THUS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY COASTLINE, AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IN AND EAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY,
FLORIDA. NOTE, WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THEY COULD STILL HAMPER RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM
HELENE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO WEAKENED TREES OR STRUCTURES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. AS MILTON INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT, A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY MATERIALIZE THAT COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN,
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE MILTON SO ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD BRING HIGHER, OR
LOWER, AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THOSE WHO RESIDE ALONG THE CURRENT
GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS GRADIENT NOW STRETCHES FROM STEINHATCHEE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE CITY, FLORIDA.
TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE CURRENTLY NOT A CONCERN WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK OF MILTON. HOWEVER, STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHLY
TRACK DEPENDENT. ANY SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NORTHWARD MAY BRING A STORM
SURGE THREAT INTO THE SOME PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UNDER 3 FEET, MOSTLY ALONG ANY EAST-FACING
BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO ST MARKS FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BUILDING WAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS
EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE
HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
- SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE APALACHEE BAY EXTENDING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIAN PASS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN
THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME
OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF POSSIBLY BREACHING DUNES,
MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SOME EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES COULD OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SOME
PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS COULD ENTER SEVERAL STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES. FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER SOME ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.
SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 5 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page