141
WTUS82 KTAE 082116
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-090530-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL142024
516 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024 /416 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**PERIPHERAL RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE,
COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL JEFFERSON, COASTAL TAYLOR, COASTAL
WAKULLA, INLAND DIXIE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND LAFAYETTE
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND JEFFERSON AND
MADISON
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 570 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE OR ABOUT 540
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER
- 22.7N 87.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 165 MPH
- MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 5 PM EDT, MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON STRENGTHENED BACK INTO A CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE MILTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
NEARS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, IT WILL STILL BE A DANGEROUS
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY WE WILL ONLY HAVE PERIPHERAL IMPACTS
FROM WIND AND RAIN, AND EVEN THESE IMPACTS HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS AS THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS EXPANSION IN THE WIND FIELD
WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
WHILE THE PROBABILITIES FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED
MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY COASTLINE. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THESE WINDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND IN AND EAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY, FLORIDA BUT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS ADVISORY. NOTE,
WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, THEY COULD STILL HAMPER RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HELENE AND
CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO WEAKENED TREES OR STRUCTURES.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS LESSENED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN
THE SHIFTS IN TRACK TO A MORE SOUTHERN LANDFALL LOCATION. CURRENT
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ARE NOW AROUND
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS
THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MILTON SO ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN
TRACK COULD BRING HIGHER, OR LOWER, AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THOSE WHO
RESIDE ALONG THE CURRENT GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS GRADIENT SHIFTED
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY CRYSTAL RIVER
NORTHEAST INTO JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA.
TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE CURRENTLY NOT A CONCERN WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK OF MILTON. HOWEVER, STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHLY
TRACK DEPENDENT. ANY SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NORTHWARD MAY BRING A STORM
SURGE THREAT INTO THE SOME PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UNDER 3 FEET, MOSTLY ALONG ANY
EAST-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO ST MARKS
FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BUILDING WAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS
EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE
HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
- SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE APALACHEE BAY EXTENDING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIAN PASS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN
THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME
OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF POSSIBLY BREACHING DUNES,
MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SOME EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES COULD OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SOME
PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS COULD ENTER SEVERAL STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES. FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER SOME ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.
SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 11 PM, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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