013
WTUS82 KTAE 090318
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091130-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL142024
1118 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024 /1018 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2024/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**PERIPHERAL RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE,
COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL JEFFERSON, COASTAL TAYLOR, COASTAL
WAKULLA, INLAND DIXIE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND LAFAYETTE
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND JEFFERSON AND
MADISON
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWANNEE RIVER
- 23.4N 86.5W
- STORM INTENSITY 160 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 11 PM EDT, HURRICANE MILTON REMAINED A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
MILTON IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A LARGE, DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
MIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY WE WILL ONLY HAVE PERIPHERAL IMPACTS FROM WIND
AND RAIN, AND EVEN THESE IMPACTS HAVE LESSENED FURTHER AS THE TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.
MILTON'S FORECAST LARGE SIZE WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
EXPANSION IN THE WIND FIELD WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE THE PROBABILITIES FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST
30 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE
APALACHEE BAY COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE WINDS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
IN AND EAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY, FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY. IMPORTANT NOTE: WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THEY COULD STILL HAMPER
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HELENE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO WEAKENED
TREES OR STRUCTURES.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. HOWEVER, THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH, SO FLOODING RAIN CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO
DECREASE EVEN FURTHER. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ARE NOW AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE A VERY
SHARP CUTOFF IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE MILTON SO ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD BRING HIGHER, OR
LOWER, AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THOSE WHO RESIDE ALONG THE CURRENT
GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN.
TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUE TO NOT BE A CONCERN
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF MILTON. HOWEVER, STORM SURGE WILL BE HIGHLY
TRACK DEPENDENT. ANY SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NORTHWARD MAY BRING A STORM
SURGE THREAT INTO THE SOME PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UNDER 3 FEET, MOSTLY ALONG ANY
EAST-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO ST MARKS
FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BUILDING WAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL
FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS
EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE
HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
- SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE APALACHEE BAY EXTENDING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIAN PASS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME
OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF POSSIBLY BREACHING DUNES,
MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW
SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SOME EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES COULD OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SOME
PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS COULD ENTER SEVERAL STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES. FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER SOME ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS
AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 5 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page