677
WTUS82 KTAE 090911
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091715-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL142024
511 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024 /411 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2024/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**PERIPHERAL RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE TODAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE,
COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL JEFFERSON, COASTAL TAYLOR, COASTAL
WAKULLA, INLAND DIXIE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND LAFAYETTE
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND JEFFERSON AND
MADISON
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY OR ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTH
OF TALLAHASSEE
- 24.5N 85.4W
- STORM INTENSITY 160 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AS OF 5 AM EDT, HURRICANE MILTON REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
MILTON IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A LARGE, DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.
OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SO THE THINKING ON LOCAL WIND AND RAIN
PERIPHERAL IMPACTS IS LARGELY INTACT.
MILTON'S FORECAST LARGE SIZE WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
EXPANSION IN THE WIND FIELD WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE THE PROBABILITIES FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE
APALACHEE BAY COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE WINDS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
IN AND EAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY, FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY. IMPORTANT NOTE: WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THEY COULD STILL HAMPER
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HELENE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL DAMAGE TO WEAKENED
TREES OR STRUCTURES.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ARE NOW AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL BE A VERY
SHARP CUTOFF IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE MILTON, SO ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN TRACK COULD BRING HIGHER, OR
LOWER, AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THOSE WHO RESIDE ALONG THE CURRENT
GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN.
TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUE TO NOT POSE MUCH
CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF MILTON. HOWEVER, STORM SURGE WILL
BE HIGHLY TRACK DEPENDENT. ANY SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NORTHWARD MAY BRING
A STORM SURGE THREAT INTO THE SOME PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WITH
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UNDER 3 FEET, MOSTLY ALONG ANY
EAST-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO ST MARKS
FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BUILDING WAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
FORMER LOOKS TO MATERIALIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ST GEORGE ISLAND,
THEN SPREAD TO THE EMERALD COAST IN THE EVENING.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE APALACHEE BAY EXTENDING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIAN PASS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN
THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SOME EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES COULD OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN SOME
PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME DANGEROUS
RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS COULD ENTER SEVERAL STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES. FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER SOME ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS
AND PARKING LOTS COULD BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES POSSIBLE.
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 11 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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