326
WTUS82 KTAE 091510
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-092315-
HURRICANE MILTON LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL142024
1110 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2024 /1010 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2024/
THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
...PERIPHERAL WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE TODAY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR INLAND
JEFFERSON AND MADISON
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DIXIE,
COASTAL FRANKLIN, COASTAL JEFFERSON, COASTAL TAYLOR, COASTAL
WAKULLA, INLAND DIXIE, INLAND TAYLOR, AND LAFAYETTE
* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE
- 25.8N 84.3W
- STORM INTENSITY 145 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
AT 11 AM EDT, HURRICANE MILTON IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. MILTON
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A LARGE, DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SO THE THINKING ON LOCAL WIND AND RAIN
PERIPHERAL IMPACTS IS LARGELY INTACT.
MILTON'S FORECAST LARGE SIZE WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
EXPANSION IN THE WIND FIELD WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE THE PROBABILITIES FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS,
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY
COASTLINE AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR MADISON AND INLAND JEFFERSON HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN MILTON TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN ANTICIPATED FROM MILTON. IMPORTANT NOTE: THESE GUSTY
WINDS COULD HAMPER RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HELENE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE TO WEAKENED TREES OR STRUCTURES.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE LOWER SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MILTON, SO ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN TRACK
COULD BRING HIGHER, OR LOWER, AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THOSE WHO RESIDE
ALONG THE CURRENT GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN.
TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE CONTINUE TO NOT POSE MUCH OF A
CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF MILTON. WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING UNDER 3 FEET, MOSTLY ALONG ANY
EAST-FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT TO ST MARKS
FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH BUILDING WAVES AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS BEGINNING TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FORMER
LOOKS TO MATERIALIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ST GEORGE ISLAND, THEN
SPREAD TO THE EMERALD COAST IN THE EVENING.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS
AREA INCLUDE:
- SOME DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS THE COAST OF THE APALACHEE BAY EXTENDING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
INDIAN PASS.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN AND
OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
VULNERABLE SPOTS. A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND,
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED.
* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. ENSURE YOU ARE IN A
SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING.
WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING RAIN, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE, AND TORNADOES EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER.GOV, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FL AROUND 5:30 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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