027
FXUS62 KTAE 141719
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1219 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL
WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD
OF IT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN ILLINOIS WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALOFT, RIDGING IS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF.
THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST TODAY AND TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
DECREASING SPEEDS AS THE WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. BULK SHEAR IS ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG NOSING INLAND IN
FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 0-1KM SRH IS
HIGHEST IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA BUT 100-200 M2/S2 EXTENDS DOWN
TO THE COAST. AS THE CONVECTION NEARS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS
MORNING, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO
WHERE THE CAPE AND SHEAR JUXTAPOSE WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
EMERALD COAST OR JUST INLAND THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD, MINIMAL CAPE DOES MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BUT THE BETTER 0-1KM SHEAR
MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. WITH
THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULLING AWAY, THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AND HAVE 20-30% CHANCES FROM ALBANY
TO TALLAHASSEE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXITING OUR EASTERN BIG
BEND COUNTIES THIS EVENING. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, THE REGION SHOULD BE
DRY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TAKEN HOLD AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN THE
WIREGRASS TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM / LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
AFTER TODAY'S RAINFALL, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THAT, THE FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON HOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO THE LOWER AND MID-50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN COMFORTABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX BY MIDWEEK, AS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
EVENTUALLY PHASE INTO A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19, LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA, IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE NAME IS SARA. THE FIVE
DAY FORECAST FROM NHC SHOWS IT LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON MONDAY, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TRACK FORECAST CONE (1/3 OF
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OUTSIDE OF THIS).
BEYOND THAT, THE TRACK OF TD 19 WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW IT'S
STEERED AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY HANDED OFF
TO THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN PARTICULAR, THE GEFS THUS
FAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPARED TO BOTH THE EPS AND GEPS, BREAKING DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FASTER. THIS TENDS TO RESULT IN THE GEFS WITH A SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
WHEREAS THE EPS AND GEPS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THESE ENSEMBLES REVEALS TWO CAMPS 1) A
WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DRIVING TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND 2) A STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF WITH THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TENDING TO GET
SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION, A SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WOULD TEND TO BE SUBJECT TO A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH COOLER SSTS IN THE WAKE OF RAFAEL, AND MORE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY TO HANG OUR HAT ON EITHER OF THESE CAMPS,
OR INFER THE TRACK OF TD 19 BEYOND DAY 5, THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-50 PCT RANGE. ALSO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND RIP CURRENTS, IT'S TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IMPACTS TO THE TRI-STATE REGION, SO PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRUSTED SOURCES ON THIS SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR,
PLEASE BE WARY OF OMINOUS LOOKING MODEL TRACKS / INTENSITIES,
WHICH ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA IS MOVING THROUGH ECP AND DHN AND MAY MOVE
THROUGH ABY, TLH, AND VLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. IFR/MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST BACK TO VFR WITH SKC TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS
THE SHOWERS END AND CIGS LIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY. IN PARTICULAR, A COUPLE STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDER
STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS AND WATERSPOUTS.
WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD FRESH BREEZES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL CLOCK WINDS AROUND TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO FAIR BOATING CONDITIONS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19, LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT'S
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND
MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND IT'S TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
WHAT IMPACTS IT COULD BRING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FAIR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS DECREASE AS ONE GOES FURTHER EAST INTO
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND BUT FIRE CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EMERALD COAST THIS
MORNING, WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER COMMENCING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. BEYOND THAT, PRECIP CHANCES HINGE
HOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTERACTS W/TROPICAL DEPRESSION
19. IN PARTICULAR, A WEAKER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO COULD DRIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA,
WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF COULD SHUNT THE
BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 54 71 50 / 30 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 54 72 53 / 40 0 0 0
DOTHAN 77 49 70 46 / 40 0 0 0
ALBANY 76 51 70 46 / 40 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 54 71 48 / 30 30 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 57 74 51 / 10 20 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 56 72 57 / 30 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...LF
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