059
FXUS62 KTAE 150530
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE FL BIG BEND REGION AT THIS TIME. ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP
UP THANKS TO SHALLOW LIFT STEMMING FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FOG NEAR THE
FRONT, BUT IT IS PRETTY SHORT-LIVED AS THE FRONT MOVES ON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TRICKLE IN OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY QUITE A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER MIDDLE AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA, AND THEY ARE SPREADING SOUTH. BY SUNRISE, THE
LOW STRATUS COULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. AS WE GET PAST
SUNRISE, MODELS INSIST THAT LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND FURTHER
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY MID-DAY.
SO MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN, WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KICK OFF A
GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL START IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS WILL WARM FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A VERY STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS, PUSHING A DECENTLY STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND THE 40S FOR LOWS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
IFR/LIFR CLOUDS ARE WORKING SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COUNTIES WITH PATCHES MOVING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TIMED
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS OUT TO ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TO BE IMPACTED
BY CLOUDS, FIRST IN OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES NOW THEN TOWARDS
TLH/ECP AFTER 9Z. HREF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON INITIALIZING THE
CLOUD COVER AND USED THIS IN TIMING AS WELL. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
BREAKING BACK OUT TOWARDS VFR MID/LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY LATE THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT TO FRESH AND STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS OVER ENOUGH OF THE WATERS TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY
TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, THEN ARRIVE EAST OF
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
NEAR THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS
REMNANT LOW COULD APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, CAUSING DISPERSIONS
TO DROP TO FAIR. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH TROPICAL STORM SARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME OF ITS REMNANT
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON WHETHER HEAVIER RAIN SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER
THE GULF, OR ONSHORE INSTEAD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 47 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 46 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 48 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 51 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 72 61 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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