688
FXUS62 KTAE 171748
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. A 1023-MB HIGH
WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS OF
12Z. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL USHER A SLOW
WARMING/MOISTENING TREND THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO MOVES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSITIONING INTO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECASTS CONCERNS BEING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE
AREA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY WITH
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF SARA WILL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
COLD FRONT AND PHASE IN WITH IT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN BE
TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF
2-2.2" WHICH WOULD PUT THIS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR ALL
RECORDED PWATS FOR THE AREA FOR THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH
HIGH POPS, AN ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
HAS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRETY OF OUR FORECAST AREA COVERING SW GA, SE
AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER, IT WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT. IF THE WARM FRONT WERE TO REMAIN
OVER OUR WATERS, THEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF OUR INLAND AREAS POSING NO THREAT. HOWEVER, IF IT WERE TO
ADVANCE NORTH, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, THOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY
WOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO TAPER
OFF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE
IS CURRENTLY LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS EVENT.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW UNLESS YOU STRONGLY DISLIKE COLD WEATHER. THIS APPEARS
TO BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FLORIDA FALL WEATHER AS A COLD AIRMASS
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME OF OUR
NORTHERNMOST SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES SEEING HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH THE
COLDEST EVENING APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S FOR OUR FL COUNTIES
AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO FINALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DIP DROPPING ALL THE WAY INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO AN END.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SATELLITE THIS AFTN SHOWS A HEALTHY FAIR-WX CU FIELD
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH AN APPARENT SEABREEZE SOUTH OF KTLH.
CEILINGS ARE AROUND 4KFT, SO EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING HRS UNDER LGT/VRB WINDS. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS GO CALM WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FG/BR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
EXCITED ABOUT LOW CIGS/VSBYS, SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH. THE "BEST"
SIGNALS ARE ACROSS THE NON-FL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY-MORNING
HRS. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TMRW NEAR 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED SE WIND
AROUND 12 KTS WITH 3-FT SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS
THIS MORNING.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRESHENING AHEAD OF AN
ARRIVING COLD FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO OUR WATERS. WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY
WITH SEAS BUILDING AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN AND
NEAR THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS. ONLY FIRE CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LOW DISPERSIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP ON MONDAY AND THEN INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES
IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS
IS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
GETTING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1" TO 3" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 5%) OF EXCEEDING 4" OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
CONSIDERING MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES AVERAGE LESS THAN 4" FOR THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER, ON AVERAGE, THAT'S A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE REALIZED. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL KEEPS RIVERS WELL BELOW
ACTION STAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 54 78 61 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 78 60 78 68 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 76 51 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 74 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 79 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 65 76 69 / 0 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM....WORSTER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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