212
FXUS62 KTAE 180543
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1243 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, MOSTLY
TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WITH CLEAR (OR CLEARING) SKIES OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AND CALM WINDS, THINK TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE
NUDGED LOWS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND,
BUT LARGELY STAYED THE SAME ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
START OFF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING/MOISTENING
TREND THAT WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM A DRY WEATHER
(NEAR-TERM PERIOD) TO WET WEATHER (SHORT-TERM PERIOD). WE HAVE ONE
MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF COOL TEMPERATURES, ALBEIT ABOVE NORMAL WHERE
READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ISOLATED MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE IF WINDS CAN GO CALM
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SW
GA & SE AL AND THE EAST FL BIG BEND AROUND SUNRISE.
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY MARITIME LOW-LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. SOME WEAK CONFLUENCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE EMERALD & FORGOTTEN COASTS. MEANWHILE,
THE AXIS OF A WELL-DEFINED, STOUT UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN GULF SHOULD ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR BACK TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND SOME CLOUDS. GREATEST SKY
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN
WHERE THERE IS RELATIVELY LESS INFLUENCE BY THE RIDGE AXIS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE
REMNANTS OF SARA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
CENTERED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.2 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR DAILY
MAXIMUMS. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ONE OR MORE MESO-
LOWS RIPPLING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST, WHICH WILL
BE KEY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS AND THE
AXIS. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE IF STRONG STORMS OVER THE GULF CAN
MAKE IT ONSHORE OR DEVELOP OVER LAND. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD MORE FAVORABLY OVERLAP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT, BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. MEANWHILE, WPC
HAS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
AND THIS IS DETAILED MORE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
QUITE A FAIR STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BEING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH
IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. IT WILL NOT FEEL SO
BAD THOUGH GIVEN DRY WEATHER AND FULL SUN EACH DAY. WHILE IT'S STILL
IN THE LONG RANGE, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD MAKE FOR NOTICEABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS
IN TERMS OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS, WHICH COULD DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. CHILLY MORNING LOWS ARE FAVORED BY
NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 30S IF FAVORABLE LONG-
WAVE/RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AFTER 08 OR 09Z.
FOR INLAND TERMINALS OF DHN/ABY/VLD/TLH RESTRICTIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO TO FOG WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS BEING AT ABY/VLD. ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST, MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE AT ECP FROM 09 TO 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER
13/14Z BUT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
FAIR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, ALTHOUGH SEAS
WILL BE ELEVATED WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY, THEN CLOCKING AROUND
TO THE THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AND REMAINING AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE, WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
A MOISTENING TREND FROM SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECLUDES FIRE
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW DISPERSIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TOMORROW, EXPECT A MOSTLY WARM, DRY DAY
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE COASTAL STRIP WEST OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. ON TUESDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
SLUGS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF TO PROMPT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SE AL & SW GA. THE WEATHER DRIES OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FRONT'S WAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE REMNANTS OF SARA WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
CENTERED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF 1" TO 3" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE,
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3" MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL
KEEPS RIVERS BELOW ACTION STAGE AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 61 76 68 / 10 0 50 70
PANAMA CITY 79 67 78 68 / 10 10 80 80
DOTHAN 77 61 73 65 / 0 10 80 70
ALBANY 78 57 74 65 / 0 0 60 70
VALDOSTA 78 56 78 66 / 0 0 30 70
CROSS CITY 81 60 80 69 / 0 0 10 60
APALACHICOLA 76 69 79 70 / 10 0 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...LF
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