654
FXUS62 KTAE 180743
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION
BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME
WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE COASTLINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S VALUES AND IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE
AREA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY WITH
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF SARA WILL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
COLD FRONT AND PHASE IN WITH IT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN BE
TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF
2-2.3" WHICH WOULD PUT THIS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR ALL
RECORDED PWATS FOR THE AREA FOR THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH
HIGH POPS, AN ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
SEE THE MOST RAIN FROM THIS EVENT WITH AROUND 2-3" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL PANHANDLE
COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE. FOR SW GA AND THE
FL BIG BEND, 1-2" APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRETY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA COVERING SW GA, SE AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS
OF THE FL BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER, IT WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT. IF THE WARM FRONT WERE TO REMAIN
OVER OUR WATERS, THEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF OUR INLAND AREAS POSING NO THREAT. HOWEVER, IF IT WERE TO
ADVANCE NORTH, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, THOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO REMAIN LOW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO HAVE
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL COUNTIES. CURRENTLY,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST
GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE GRANTED MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY CAN MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW GIVEN YOU CAN HANDLE OUR FIRST COLD WEATHER SHOT IN A
WHILE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FLORIDA FALL WEATHER AS
A COLD AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING OUR DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME OF
OUR NORTHERNMOST SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES SEEING HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH THE
COLDEST EVENING APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S FOR OUR FL COUNTIES
AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO FINALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DIP DROPPING ALL THE WAY INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO AN END.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AFTER 08 OR 09Z.
FOR INLAND TERMINALS OF DHN/ABY/VLD/TLH RESTRICTIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO TO FOG WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS BEING AT ABY/VLD. ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST, MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE AT ECP FROM 09 TO 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER
13/14Z BUT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
AN EASTERLY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE FRESHENING AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD
FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. LATER
THIS EVENING, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL
ZONES WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE MARKEDLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN AND NEAR
THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING AS
WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER RHS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS MOVE IN, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY OVER THE LAST
45 DAYS, WILL RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES IN. HOWEVER, RAIN FROM THE FRONT AND THE COOLER NATURE
OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE
CONCERNS FROM DEVELOPING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE REMNANTS OF SARA WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
CENTERED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF 1" TO 3" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE,
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3" MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL
KEEPS RIVERS BELOW ACTION STAGE AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 61 77 68 / 10 0 50 70
PANAMA CITY 79 68 79 68 / 20 10 80 80
DOTHAN 77 61 72 65 / 10 30 80 70
ALBANY 78 57 74 64 / 0 10 60 70
VALDOSTA 79 57 79 66 / 0 0 30 60
CROSS CITY 80 60 81 67 / 0 0 10 70
APALACHICOLA 77 69 78 69 / 10 0 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM....WORSTER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...LF
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