533
FXUS62 KTAE 190031
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
731 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
QUIET, BUT WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NEARBY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN VIA SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THICK CLOUD COVER YIELDS
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S - A DOZEN OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!
ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DECOUPLE.
BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE ROUGHLY EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN.
LOOKING AHEAD, TROUBLE IS BREWING UPSTREAM AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
APPARENT JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TC SARA (CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE) TOMORROW AND SERVE AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DUAL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(PRIMARY) AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER (SECONDARY). TERTIARY CONCERNS
ARE HAZARDOUS MARINE & BEACH CONDITIONS, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG APALACHEE BAY.
CURRENT HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BRINGS MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION
ORIENTED INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED, BROKEN BANDS TO OUR BORDER WITH WFO
MOBILE NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT AIMS TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE NE GULF COAST AS RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
"GHOST" OF SARA SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-PROGRESSING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2.2"
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION PROMPTS FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. OUR FORECAST SHOWS WIDESPREAD 1-3" ALONG/WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER WITH CAMS PAINTING 4-6+ INCHES FOR FL PANHANDLE,
SE AL, AND PARTS OF THE WIREGRASS REGION. SOME OF THESE AMOUNTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PILING UP IN A SHORT DURATION. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION STEADILY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FROPA OCCURS.
ON THE TOPIC OF SEVERE WEATHER, THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR CAN PENETRATE, AND WHERE ANY MESOSCALE
LOWS DEVELOP. THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL
ROLE IN WHETHER OR NOT THE APPROPRIATE PARAMETERS OF STRONG WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN OVERLAP FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
THINKING AS THE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NO FURTHER THAN THE EMERALD
COAST, SO WE FEEL THAT THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO.
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NW/SE HIGH-TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON TUESDAY
AS RAIN-COOLED AIR & THICK CLOUD COVER PROMPTS MAXT'S CLOSER TO 70
DEGREES WHILE LOCATIONS EASTWARD AND TOWARDS THE COAST TREND NEAR 80.
SHORT TERM / LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
QUITE A FAIR STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WEATHER STORY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY DIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INTO
THE 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY
WEATHER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS COULD MAKE FOR NOTICEABLY CHILLY
APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOW TO MID-
30S POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COLD WEATHER SHELTERING CONCERNS
FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. WHILE THE WIND DIES DOWN THIS WEEKEND,
THAT'S WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DIP WELL INTO THE 30S IF MORE
FAVORABLE LONG-WAVE/RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. WE'VE INCLUDED
FROST IN THE FORECAST ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, BUT A
FREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AS THE PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES
LESS THAN 32F HAS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50% IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS NOTED AT VLD JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. INCOMING SHRA TOMORROW WILL BEGIN TO LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS STARTING AROUND 12Z FOR ECP AND DHN WITH LOWERING AT TLH,
ABY, VLD EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SEND VSBYS
DOWN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS ACROSS ECP AND DHN BEGIN TO IMPROVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
BOATING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY, THEN CLOCKING AROUND TO THE THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AND REMAINING AT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE, HIGHEST IN
IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERS EAST OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE,
THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS (HEAVY AT TIMES)
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM. THE LATTER MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SE AL. LOW AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA. LOW AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS STICK
AROUND THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND AND LOWER I-75 CORRIDOR. POST-FRONTAL
WINDS ALSO SHIFT OUT OF THE NW. THE AIRMASS THEN NOTABLY DRIES OUT
ON THURSDAY WITH FORECAST MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS YIELD WIDESPREAD HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SARA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASE IN PW VALUES IN THE 2.2-2.3
INCHES RANGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MOIST AIRMASS COMMENSURATE WITH
SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAINFALL, SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
TUESDAY. 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON, THOUGH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 NEAR 5 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME OF
THE DRIEST SOILS IN OUR REGION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, SO ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK
WILL HAVE TO BE MORE RATE DRIVEN, AND MOST LIKELY WHEN THE STORMS
ARE IN THEIR PEAK CONVECTIVE PHASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES AND RAINFALL TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM EVENT. SO, WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL - OR LEVEL 2 OF 4 - FOR A PORTION OF OUR
AREA, IT WILL LARGELY COME DOWN TO HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL
RATES TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT LOW FLOWS ON THE MAINSTEMS.
WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COASTAL FLOOD EVENT UNFOLD WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERLAYING HIGH AMPLITUDE TIDES.
OVER THE LAST 3 TIDAL CYCLES, COASTAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE IT WELL
INTO THE ACTION CRITERIA, AND THUS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW,
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SUGGEST MINOR FLOOD CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COASTAL AREA, STARTING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT AND LIKELY PEAKING WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE SURGE COMPONENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH WATER LEVELS ABOVE 3
FT MHHW AND REACH COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CRITERIA. OF COURSE, HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS IN THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN APALACHEE BAY,
MAINLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT EASTWARD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 78 67 77 / 0 60 80 30
PANAMA CITY 69 78 68 76 / 10 80 80 20
DOTHAN 64 71 65 72 / 20 90 60 10
ALBANY 60 70 64 74 / 0 80 70 20
VALDOSTA 58 79 65 77 / 0 50 50 30
CROSS CITY 60 81 68 78 / 0 10 50 40
APALACHICOLA 71 78 71 77 / 0 60 80 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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