817
FXUS62 KTAE 191548 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
.CORRECTION: ADDED A SETNENCE ABOUT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPDATE
SECTION AND CHANGED WORDING FROM "WESTWARD" TO "EASTWARD".
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE REFINING THE HOURLY POP AND
WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. LATE-MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE STORM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS EVIDENT
VIA MOSAIC RADAR EXTENDING FROM LA TO THE EXTREME WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO RAISED A COUPLE DAYS FROM ABOUT VALDOSTA DOWN
TO CROSS CITY WHERE THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM UP MORE EFFECTIVELY
GIVEN NOTABLY LESSER SKY COVER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST
WHERE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF IS OVERSPREADING.
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING STILL EXISTS
WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE LATTER
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED. THE 12Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THIS BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE EMERALD COAST,
THUS FAVORING THE COASTAL PANHANDLE FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUST
AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT REVOLVE
AROUND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL FLOOD THREAT IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY (MORE
INFORMATION IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW).
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SARA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS A BROAD US TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US
STATES CONTINUES EASTWARDS. THE COMBINATION OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
BROAD CENTRAL-US TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ONGOING, A MODEST 35 TO 45 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING TO OUR WEST AND MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING CONVECTION. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY SOUTH OF EAST AS IT FOLLOWS
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW PATH AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH AND WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
FURTHER EAST, AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REST
OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WHILE THESE ARE
WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGES, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG OUR
PANHANDLE COASTS ARE POSSIBLE AND OVERNIGHT HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL (10% CHANCE) FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5
TO 7 INCHES ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT
WILL POSSIBLY MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
WIND GUST IN A STRONGER STORM AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THESE THREATS WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHEN WE'LL HAVE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND BETTER INSTABILITY. EXPECT THIS
SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL KINEMATICS MOVE OFFSHORE FOLLOWING
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GULF.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH NOTABLY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE TRI
STATE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING AS OF LATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GOING INTO THURSDAY WILL DROP MARKEDLY AS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
BREAK INTO THE 50S WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS SE AL AND SW GA WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN OUR FL COUNTIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S,
THOUGH HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 50S IN OUR
NORTHERNMOST SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ECP/DHN BY 18Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST TO TLH/ABY/VLD AFTER 21Z.
FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ABOUT 3 TO
6 HOURS AFTER ONSET OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SHOWERS
CONTINUING. THESE IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR LATER ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
OFFSHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, 5-6-FT SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7
SECONDS THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MARITIME CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, WATERSPOUTS, AND
LIGHTNING.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...WINDS OVER OUR WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE DAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS INITIALLY
BEGINNING OVER OUR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THIS EVENING, THE
REMAINDER OF OUR WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AS WELL WITH A FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH WAVES
BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING SEEING A DIP OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOCK TO NORTHWESTERLY AND FRESHEN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER OUR
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN THESE STORMS WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION HAVING A HIGH CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST, FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
FORECAST. THESE WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BUT
RECENT RAINS SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS ON THE LOWER SIDE DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE 25 TO 35% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH HIGHER DISPERSIONS AS WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIT 20 TO 25 MPH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MUCH COOLER AT
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SARA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASE IN PW VALUES IN THE 2.2-2.3
INCHES RANGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MOIST AIRMASS COMMENSURATE WITH
SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAINFALL, SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
TUESDAY. 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON, THOUGH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 NEAR
5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME OF
THE DRIEST SOILS IN OUR REGION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, SO ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK
WILL HAVE TO BE MORE RATE DRIVEN, AND MOST LIKELY WHEN THE STORMS
ARE IN THEIR PEAK CONVECTIVE PHASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES AND RAINFALL TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM EVENT. SO, WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL - OR LEVEL 2 OF 4 - FOR A PORTION OF OUR
AREA, IT WILL LARGELY COME DOWN TO HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL
RATES TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT LOW FLOWS ON THE MAINSTREAMS.
WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COASTAL FLOOD EVENT UNFOLD WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERLAYING HIGH AMPLITUDE TIDES.
OVER THE LAST 3 TIDAL CYCLES, COASTAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE IT WELL
INTO THE ACTION CRITERIA, AND THUS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW,
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SUGGEST MINOR FLOOD CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COASTAL AREA, STARTING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT AND LIKELY PEAKING WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE SURGE COMPONENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH WATER LEVELS ABOVE 3
FT MHHW AND REACH COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CRITERIA. OF COURSE, HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS IN THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN APALACHEE BAY,
MAINLY FROM ALLIGATOR POINT EASTWARD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 68 77 46 / 90 80 10 0
PANAMA CITY 77 68 78 48 / 90 80 0 0
DOTHAN 71 65 75 42 / 100 50 0 0
ALBANY 72 66 76 42 / 90 70 10 0
VALDOSTA 81 66 78 45 / 60 80 20 0
CROSS CITY 82 68 79 48 / 10 80 30 0
APALACHICOLA 78 70 78 50 / 80 90 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-
772.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM....WORSTER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page