385
FXUS62 KTAE 200206
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT.
THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE WAS LOWERING
POPS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ELECTED
TO KEEP HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
THINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA
REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST RATES LIKELY
TO RIDE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WHERE BOWING SEGMENTED CELLS
ARE CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARDS THAT WAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH LARGE
RAIN SHIELDS LIKE THIS, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL, AS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW STRONG GUSTS
TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE
DECENT MODEL SIGNALS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR ARE THE WINDS, FOR WHICH IF THEY GO CALM CAN SUPPORT
FORMATION PRIOR TO FROPA. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE
FORECAST. COASTAL COMMUNITIES NEED TO ALSO BE VIGILANT FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING, FOR WHICH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
APALACHEE BAY (MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION). FOR TOMORROW,
RAIN CHANCES & SKY COVER DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
FRONT'S WAKE WITH BREEZY WINDS SHARPLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW. THIS
BREEZINESS MAINTAINS HAZARDOUS BEACH & MARINE CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
QUITE A FAIR STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WEATHER STORY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY DIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INTO
THE 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S
AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOIST RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, BUT FORECAST IS KEPT DRY FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY.
THE COMBO OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS IS INCREASINGLY
FAVORED TO MAKE FOR CHILLY APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOW TO MID-30S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO COLD WEATHER SHELTERING CONCERNS FOR VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS. WHILE THE WIND DIES DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THAT'S WHEN LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD DIP WELL INTO THE 30S IF MORE FAVORABLE LONG-
WAVE/RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WE'VE INCLUDED FROST IN THE
FORECAST ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, BUT A FREEZE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, AS THE PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32F
IS AROUND 50% IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, THE
ONGOING LINE OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. IN
THE MEANTIME, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE'LL SEE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR
CEILINGS. AFTER SUNRISE VLD IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST TERMINAL TO
SEE VCSH BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL BOATING THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS WILL
CLOCK AROUND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCLUDING A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS.
FRESH BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF LULL
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WHILE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 5 TO 8 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS (HEAVY AT TIMES) ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE FRONT'S WAKE AS A DRY
AIRMASS BEGINS FILTERING IN VIA NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD 30S ON FRIDAY. FIRE CONCERNS APPEAR
MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POCKETS OF HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY, PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE RECEIVED BETTEANN 2-3 INCHES OF
RAIN, MAINLY IN SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH A LITTLE
MORE ON THE WAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE RAIN FROM THE
WEST AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT APPROACHES, BUT NONETHELESS, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING,
THOUGH THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE RATE DRIVEN AND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SEEM TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF PANAMA CITY WHERE
THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO RESULT
IN ANY RIVERINE FLOODING IN THE DAYS AHEAD. AND THEN, AFTER THIS
EVENING, THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS, SO NO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE MIX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON THE HIGH TIDE SEQUENCE
THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY WITH HIGH TIDE IN
APALACHEE BAY. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PEAK WATER LEVELS
JUST ABOVE THE 3 FT MHHW MARK, MOST GUIDANCE IS IN THE 2.5-2.8 FT
MHHW LEVELS, SUGGESTING HIGH END ADVISORY IMPACTS IN APALACHEE BAY.
AS SUCH, ENHANCED THE WORDING FOR WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES
WHERE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
HIGH TIDE AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND. AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL END JUST AFTER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 78 46 62 / 90 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 77 47 65 / 80 10 0 0
DOTHAN 62 75 42 61 / 40 10 0 0
ALBANY 63 76 43 61 / 80 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 78 45 61 / 90 20 0 0
CROSS CITY 71 80 47 65 / 80 30 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 78 48 64 / 90 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF/REESE
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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