535
FXUS62 KTAE 201129
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
629 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE DRIER
WEATHER MOVE IN BY 9AM EST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS
EVENING MUCH COOLER AIR WILL STEADILY STREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER ONE LAST WARM AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP QUICKLY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT & LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THIS TERM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DAY
PRIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST
WITH CLEARING SKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 50S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S AND MID-UPPER 30S BY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE SURFACE
WINDS, THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO BE AROUND FREEZING IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. REGARDLESS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF
THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD ARE
NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SHORTLY TO IFR/MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 12-14Z AT ECP/DHN AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MVFR/VFR BY 18Z. EXPECT THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TERMINALS AT MVFR OR
VFR BY OR AFTER THE 18-21Z PERIOD. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO PEAK OUT
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST, EXPECT WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 OR
25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ROUGH SEAS OF 5 TO 8
FEET AND NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF LULLS IN THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN
PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE EVENING. THIS WEEKEND, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM AND RETURN TO 1-2 FOOT SEAS BY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
DRIER WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 OR 20 MPH AS SKIES CLEAR. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE. PLENTY OF
SUN AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGH DISPERSIONS AND OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LOW AND WIND/WIND-GUSTS ELEVATED. RECENT RAINS SHOULD
KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW DESPITE THE DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS, SO NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL BE IN THE MIX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON THE HIGH TIDE
SEQUENCE THROUGH VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY WITH HIGH TIDE
IN APALACHEE BAY. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PEAK WATER
LEVELS JUST ABOVE THE 3 FT MHHW MARK, MOST GUIDANCE IS IN THE
2.5-2.8 FT MHHW LEVELS, SUGGESTING HIGH END ADVISORY IMPACTS IN
APALACHEE BAY. AS SUCH, ENHANCED THE WORDING FOR WAKULLA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHERE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST GIVEN
THE TIMING OF THE HIGH TIDE AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL
END JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW TIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 46 62 44 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 48 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 75 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 77 43 60 40 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 45 62 42 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 48 65 45 / 30 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 49 63 49 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ108-
112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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