014
FXUS62 KTAE 151445
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF 9:30 AM ET, WITH SOME
EROSION/CLEARING EVIDENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSER TO
THE FORGOTTEN AND NATURE COASTS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN CLEARING THE CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND AND LOWER I-75 CORRIDOR
OF GA, WHERE IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD UP TO A
FEW DEGREES. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE, EXPECT COOLER DEW
POINTS AS WELL IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. A DRY DAY IS STILL ON TAP ACROSS THE
REGION.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
TO OUR NORTH; THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION CAUSING OUR
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. YET THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLOCK THE COLD FRONT
FROM AFFECTING OUR REGION SO, WE WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD.
WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHS FOR
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN OUR NORTHERN TIER OF GA COUNTIES
TO THE MID-UPPER 70S IN FLORIDA AND THE SE BIG BEND. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, AND POSSIBLY
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF FORCING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
TOO PROMISING, ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. WE'LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, AND SOME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AFFECT ALL AREA TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK APART FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON RETURNING US TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY POSSIBLY RETURN AT THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LOWERED VSBYS WITH POTENTIAL FOG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES.
MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW 3 FEET. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS
CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
LOW DISPERSIONS FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION EXCEPT THE SE BIG BEND,
WHICH BRINGS DISPERSION VALUES TO FAIR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AND ONLY
WEAKENING A LITTLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 56 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 69 52 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 66 51 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 55 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 76 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 57 70 59 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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