290
FXUS62 KTAE 152045
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AND OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS.
AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN CAN BE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS, A COLD
AIR WEDGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CAN OFTEN KEEP CONDITIONS
CLOUDY AND COOLER ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. FOR TOMORROW DID GO
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, BUT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ADVECTING WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AS WELL, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO MIX OUT SOME OF
THOSE STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SO DIDN'T WANT TO
GO AS COOL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IF
WE FAIL TO MIX OUT TOMORROW, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE NOW, AND IF WE MIX OUT, WE COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE US COAST AND A WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH, WE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND CLIMB UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST AS MILD TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF SEVERAL LATE
WEEK COLD FRONTS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY
ISOLATED AND AROUND 20%. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE, BUT
HIGHER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INCOMING COLD AIR IS CERTAINLY NOT
AS COLD AS MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT IT STILL WILL
LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
MVFR CIGS OR JUST ABOVE ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS ALL SITES AND SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AROUND 9-10Z TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS WILL DROP TO LOW-
END MVFR TO IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ROLLING IN AS WELL AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR KECP. VISIBILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AT THE
MOMENT, BUT CERTAINLY COULD DROP NOTABLY LOWER IF WINDS ARE CALMER
THAN FORECAST. AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z, THOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF AREA WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE AROUND
CAUTIONARY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL
MILES. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW 3 FEET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. SEVERAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS CLOCKING AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND DISPERSIONS BELOW CRITERIA (25) ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE, AND OUR ALABAMA/GEORGIA COUNTIES. DISPERSIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
WINDY AND DRY THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONTS ARE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 51 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 76 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 55 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 58 70 58 72 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...WORSTER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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