744
FXUS62 KTAE 160245
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE FOG COVERAGE
IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING. A PATCH OF DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE GA COAST, WHERE SSI IS REPORTING LESS
THAN 1/4SM VISIBILITY. THE HREF AND GLAMP ARE INSISTENT THAT THIS
FOG WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AND EXPAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SUNRISE, THANKS TO NE-E LOW- LEVEL FLOW. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
FOG SHOULD BE OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES,
WITH DOTHAN AND ALBANY LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE FOG AREA. THE NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO WATCH THE NEED FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, A WEDGE OF COOL AIR CAPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES,
NUDGING PARTIALLY TOWARD THE 00Z HRRR.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AND OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS.
AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN CAN BE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS, A COLD
AIR WEDGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST CAN OFTEN KEEP CONDITIONS
CLOUDY AND COOLER ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. FOR TOMORROW DID GO
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, BUT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ADVECTING WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AS WELL, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO MIX OUT SOME OF
THOSE STUBBORN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SO DIDN'T WANT TO
GO AS COOL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IF
WE FAIL TO MIX OUT TOMORROW, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE 4 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE NOW, AND IF WE MIX OUT, WE COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE US COAST AND A WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH, WE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND CLIMB UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST AS MILD TUESDAY MORNING AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF SEVERAL LATE
WEEK COLD FRONTS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FIRST FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY
ISOLATED AND AROUND 20%. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE, BUT
HIGHER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INCOMING COLD AIR IS CERTAINLY NOT
AS COLD AS MODELS INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT IT STILL WILL
LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE HAS GONE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND MIST ARE
STARTING TO GATHER ALONG THE GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET, NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY EXPAND
THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES.
THE HREF AND THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS-LAMP SPREAD LIFR CIGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM EAST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS VLD, TLH, AND
ECP. DHN AND ABY WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW
STRATUS, SO HAVE NOT GONE AS AGGRESSIVE THERE. ON MONDAY MORNING,
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL
IMPROVEMENT, BUT THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO
LIMIT AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE TO SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS, IF
ANY AT ALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE WATERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME FOG COULD BLOW OFF LAND AND ACROSS THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE DISSIPATING MIDDAY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE
IN FROM MID-AMERICA ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND DISPERSIONS BELOW CRITERIA (25) ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE, AND OUR ALABAMA/GEORGIA COUNTIES. DISPERSIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
WINDY AND DRY THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONTS ARE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 54 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 50 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 53 76 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 55 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 60 70 58 72 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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