685
FXUS62 KTAE 161643
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY. THIS IS
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE MORNING WITH CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS.
BY MID-MORNING, THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND LEAVE US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE
MID-50S WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH THIS
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY 10-30 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAIN, GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THURSDAY'S HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO MAINLY THE 60S AREAWIDE. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR COOLING TREND WITH A CHANCE OF
A LIGHT FREEZE FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES APPEAR EXTREMELY
LIKELY ACROSS KTLH, VLD, KDHN, AND KABY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 06Z ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES BEFORE DETERIORATING TO 1SM OR LESS AROUND 09Z.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LESS THAN 1SM WILL BE AT KDHN, KABY, AND
KVLD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME FOLLOWING 14Z, THOUGH SOME OF THE
FOG COULD TRANSITION TO LOW STRATUS IF THE WINDS PICK UP RESULTING
IN A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER
AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
TUESDAY. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE LOW DISPERSIONS
THAT ARE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AND DISPERSIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A WETTING
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT, POPS ARE LIMITED TO ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT.
WITH THESE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 78 60 77 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 56 77 59 75 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 52 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 51 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 56 79 60 78 / 0 0 10 20
CROSS CITY 59 80 62 79 / 0 10 10 30
APALACHICOLA 58 72 60 70 / 0 0 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...WORSTER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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