957
FXUS62 KTAE 171702
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1202 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THIS MORNING WILL START WITH WIDESPREAD PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ACROSS
OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES, AND ALONG I-10 AROUND DAYBREAK AS WE WOULD
HAVE HAD A NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
DURING THE DAY, THE FOG WILL DISPERSE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY FOR THE
EASTERN BIG BEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. POPS FOR TODAY ARE ABOUT 15-25% FOR THE EASTERN BIG BEND
ALONG I-10 TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY SEEM MINIMAL BUT, I'VE
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FROM THE NBM AND BLENDED IN GFS FOR BETTER
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND NEAR 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/I-75 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND A
STRATUS DECK FILLING IN OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THIS FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY 30-40 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR AREAS THAT
DO SEE RAIN, GENERALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND COMMENCING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE COOLEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT,
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
AFTER AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PLAGUE OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS,
SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CIGS AND VIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW STUBBORN MVFR CIGS FOR A
FEW OF THE TERMINALS THAT ARE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. LIGHT NORTHEAST
OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AND VIS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A -SHRA
IMPINGE ON KECP TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND IT LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. BORDERLINE CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
LOW DISPERSIONS DUE TO LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WILL BRING FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS
AND MINIMAL RAINFALL. TEMPS COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 77 59 71 / 10 30 30 10
PANAMA CITY 61 75 57 70 / 20 30 20 10
DOTHAN 59 76 54 67 / 10 30 20 10
ALBANY 59 76 54 69 / 10 30 20 10
VALDOSTA 62 77 58 73 / 10 40 30 10
CROSS CITY 63 79 60 76 / 20 40 30 10
APALACHICOLA 62 71 59 70 / 20 40 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...BOWSER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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