443
FXUS62 KTAE 180227
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM ET WEDNESDAY
FOR FL BIG BEND INLAND AREAS AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST GA. THE
ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AL AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOG IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MID EVENING FIRST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST SPREADING INLAND THEN ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH OF EXPERIENCING 1 MILE
OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
AROUND 10AM ET. DEPENDING ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON, DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM
TALLAHASSEE-ALBANY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE REST OF THE MORNING APPEARS DRY AND CLOUDY WITH SOME PEAKS OF
THE SUN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS BUT REMAINS LIMITED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
FIRST IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HERE
AND THERE; SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK IN SO MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP FOR
THE FL BIG BEND WITH UPPER 60S IN THE WIREGRASS. CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S AREA WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL TO THE
NORTH.
THE SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
FIRST FRONT WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE LEADING TO A DRY
PASSAGE FOR THIS FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT AREA TAF SITES THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. ALL TAF SITES
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HITTING LIFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z. SOME SITES COULD SEE VLIFR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIEST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SETTLES IN FROM 10Z TO 14Z.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DHN WHERE A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR SLOWLY OCCURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTER AFTER 20Z, MOSTLY
AFFECTING DHN, ABY, AND VLD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME MARINE FOG WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING THURSDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO LOW END
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
LOW DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH IMPROVING DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 61 76 60 / 20 10 20 30
PANAMA CITY 77 60 74 58 / 10 10 30 30
DOTHAN 76 58 76 55 / 10 10 30 20
ALBANY 76 59 77 56 / 10 10 30 30
VALDOSTA 78 62 78 59 / 20 10 30 30
CROSS CITY 80 62 80 61 / 30 10 30 30
APALACHICOLA 72 62 70 60 / 10 10 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ015>019-026>029.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>126-142>144-155.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ127>131-
145>148-156>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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