052
FXUS62 KTAE 180605
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM ET WEDNESDAY
FOR FL BIG BEND INLAND AREAS AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST GA. THE
ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AL AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOG IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MID EVENING FIRST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST SPREADING INLAND THEN ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH OF EXPERIENCING 1 MILE
OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
AROUND 10AM ET. DEPENDING ON TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON, DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM
TALLAHASSEE-ALBANY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE REST OF THE MORNING APPEARS DRY AND CLOUDY WITH SOME PEAKS OF
THE SUN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS BUT REMAINS LIMITED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE ON THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
FIRST IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HERE
AND THERE; SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE SLOW TO WORK IN SO MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP FOR
THE FL BIG BEND WITH UPPER 60S IN THE WIREGRASS. CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S AREA WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL TO THE
NORTH.
THE SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
FIRST FRONT WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT THE MOISTURE LEADING TO A DRY
PASSAGE FOR THIS FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS TO CREEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, MIXING WITH COOL
AIR IN PLACE FOR A PRETTY IDEAL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD MIST AND FOG.
AS OF 06Z, VLD, TVI, BIJ, BGE AND CTY ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING
VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS. THIS TREND WILL EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 1 HOUR
AFTER SUNRISE, AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNRISE, IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z-16Z TO SEE CONDITIONS START IMPROVING. GIVEN
THE RICHNESS OF THE MOISTURE, A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS,
AND ANEMIC DECEMBER SUNSHINE, A FEW TERMINALS WILL STRUGGLE TO
LIFT CIGS ABOVE 2,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. A WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, SO SOME MIX OF POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS AND MIST IS LIKELY IN PLACES ON WED EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME MARINE FOG WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE
FRONT ARRIVES. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING THURSDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO LOW END
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
LOW DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH IMPROVING DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OUT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 60 73 49 / 20 30 10 0
PANAMA CITY 74 58 72 48 / 30 30 0 0
DOTHAN 76 55 69 43 / 30 20 0 0
ALBANY 77 56 71 44 / 30 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 78 59 75 51 / 30 30 10 0
CROSS CITY 80 61 76 54 / 30 30 10 0
APALACHICOLA 70 60 71 51 / 20 30 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ015>019-
026>029.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>126-
142>144-155.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ127>131-
145>148-156>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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