152
FXUS62 KTAE 180914
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH FOG IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING.
MOIST ADVECTION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVERRUNNING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS MANY INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 19. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, SO HAVE
THEREFORE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE COAST. EVEN AFTER SUNRISE, FOG WILL BE
UNCOMMONLY SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE, CONSIDERING THE MOIST STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PUNY MID-DECEMBER SOLAR INSOLATION. SO THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY GOES ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL 10 AM ET, AND A COUPLE SPOTS
COULD HANG ON TO FOG A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SHORTWAVE CROSSING KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED
AREAS WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. AN 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS BULLSEYE WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, SUPPORTING SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL THE FASTEST.
MEANWHILE, WEAK OR POSSIBLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW MANY SUN BREAKS CAN
DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE, SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WOULD DEVELOP THANKS TO COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
SO SQUATTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 25-40+ KNOTS WILL HELP
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS, AND STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS THE ELEVATED NATURE OF
INSTABILITY WOULD KEEP THIS AS A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT, WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKED.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND AND LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT A BIT AS THIS ROUND DOESN'T HAVE
AS STRONG OF A PUSH. THUS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S.
A STRONGER, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S. WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. GIVEN THE ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US THIS
WEEKEND WITH COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLING IN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S. THE HIGH'S POSITIONING TO
OUR NORTH IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL PLACE FOR A RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP. HOWEVER, THE 850 MB HIGH DOES MOVE OVER OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP US DECOUPLE A LITTLE BIT MORE. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS EVENT WITH A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IF THE
WINDS CAN GO CALM.
THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH
BRINGS A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP FUNNEL SOME COOL AIR
DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO OUR AREA, KEEPING US RATHER COOL. THUS,
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S. AND,
THIS PRECLUDES A RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP BOTH NIGHTS AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP US MIXED. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD AIR
MASS STILL ENTRENCHED, ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE (20-40%
CHANCE), MAINLY IN THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, THOUGH LOWS
EVERYWHERE WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S. WITH THE WIND YET AGAIN,
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH STARTS SLIDING FARTHER TO THE EAST AND WE ENTER MORE OF
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. LOWS WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE
40S MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE
50S TO THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS TO CREEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, MIXING WITH COOL
AIR IN PLACE FOR A PRETTY IDEAL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD MIST AND FOG.
AS OF 06Z, VLD, TVI, BIJ, BGE AND CTY ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING
VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS. THIS TREND WILL EXPAND UNTIL ABOUT 1 HOUR
AFTER SUNRISE, AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNRISE, IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z-16Z TO SEE CONDITIONS START IMPROVING. GIVEN
THE RICHNESS OF THE MOISTURE, A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS,
AND ANEMIC DECEMBER SUNSHINE, A FEW TERMINALS WILL STRUGGLE TO
LIFT CIGS ABOVE 2,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. A WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, SO SOME MIX OF POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS AND MIST IS LIKELY IN PLACES ON WED EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL CLOCK AROUND FROM OUT OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO OUT OF
THE NORTH BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH CAUTIONARY-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, DUE TO LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS, WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS, AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE DISTRICTS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FOLLOWING FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
RAINFALL TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND TODAY. THUS, THERE ARE
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 60 74 48 / 20 30 10 0
PANAMA CITY 74 58 72 46 / 20 40 0 0
DOTHAN 76 55 68 42 / 40 20 0 0
ALBANY 77 56 70 44 / 30 40 10 0
VALDOSTA 77 59 75 49 / 20 20 10 0
CROSS CITY 80 61 77 52 / 20 20 20 0
APALACHICOLA 71 60 71 50 / 20 40 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>014-034-118-127-128-134.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ015>019-
026>029.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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