362
FXUS62 KTAE 190307
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THIS EVENING AND AFTER AN EVENING OF
MUCH GREATER STORM COVERAGE THAN FORECAST, THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST. CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALREADY ENTERING THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
HOUSTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA AND FURTHER NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF
ALBANY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT AS THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND ELEVATED WINDS MOVE IN, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR
OUT THE DENSE FOG FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THE MAIN IMPACTS WEATHER WISE WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CURRENTLY COVERS MANY OF THE AREAS AT RISK BUT IT MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FOG PATTERNS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LEAD TO DIURNAL
WARMING/INSTABILITY. THIS INCREASE IN BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO PWATS
INCREASING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN MOISTENS. THE PROXIMITY TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ALSO
LEADS THIS PART OF THE AREA TO HAVE BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. ALL THIS TO SAY THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA, THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS AS STORMS
COLLAPSE.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND STABILIZES AT THE SURFACE
WE'LL SEE A REDUCTION IN POPS AND AN INCREASE IN FOG COVERAGE. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND SW
GEORGIA WILL BE EITHER NEAR CALM OR CALM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW, WE'LL SEE SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP AS DEW
POINTS DROP AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION, RETURNING THE FEEL OF WINTER.
HOWEVER, THE TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN
TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED SEVERAL DAYS
AGO. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINING MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF OUR
REGION. SO WHILE COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MODEST, IT WON'T BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES OR
WIND CHILLS INCREDIBLY LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE THIS 12Z CYCLE HAS
WARMED FROM THE LAST CYCLE, AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS QUITE UNLIKELY THAT AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH FREEZING INTO FL, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN SE ALABAMA MAY
GET THERE. NONETHELESS, WITH THE SURFACE WIND, WIND CHILLS WILL
DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
TRANSIT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
TUESDAY. BECAUSE THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS LOCATED SO FAR TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION, LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT SET
UP TO BE AS COOL AS ADVERTISED IN THE MOS, AS THIS ISN'T AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH 3-5 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT. ONLY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA CENTERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THIS POINT,
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR
HIGHS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE REGION
FOR A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SCATTERED SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPECTED INVOF ABY AND TLH
BEFORE DISSIPATING 01-02Z. A VFR START TO THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF FOG AT ECP, THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT ECP, TLH, AND
VLD WITH LIFR/VLIFR. AT ABY AND DHN, MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFR. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CLOCK
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A SLOW
RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODEST
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE DISTRICTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING FROM LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TRANSPORT WINDS, COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING TO FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE
LIMITED RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THUS, THERE ARE NO FLOOD
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 73 45 65 / 20 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 59 71 46 64 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 55 67 41 62 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 55 70 41 62 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 74 47 64 / 20 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 62 77 50 68 / 0 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 71 48 65 / 20 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
FLZ007>010-012>015-108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ750-752.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...33
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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