566
FXUS62 KTAE 200511
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1211 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRATUS
DECK WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
TIFTON TO QUINCY AND JUST NORTH OF PANAMA CITY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND WEST, THE CLOUD COVER HAS GRADUALLY ERODED SOMEWHAT, SO IT DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS US IN BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT, SO THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR 3-5KT WINDS AND PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR THE MINT FORECAST TRENDED IT A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE MOS.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND THE COOL
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER TODAY'S COLD FRONT WE'LL HAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS
COLD NORTHERLY AIR PLOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE'LL SEE A TURNING OF THE WIND TO BEING MORE
OUT OF THE EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO
FORM. DEW POINTS AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SEEING PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. ALTHOUGH, INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED, THUS SHOWER COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO BE COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE 40S AND
LOW 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND
WITH TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FLINT RIVER, IMPACTING
ABY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. VSBYS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND FROM VFR TO
VLIFR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME OF THIS MAY BE MIGRATING
WEST OF THE TERMINAL, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED IFR VSBYS IN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A STRATUS DECK IS SCRAPING THE
COAST AS WELL AND MAY GRAZE ECP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
BRINGING MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NW
WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING MODERATE BREEZES
TO GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THE REGION IS FULLY POST-FRONTAL AS OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEARING SKIES ROUGHLY NW OF A TALLAHASSEE-MOULTRIE-TIFTON LINE. A
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN VIA NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY USHERS IN
NW BREEZES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THUS PROMPTING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
SATURDAY, THEN NE BY SUNDAY. DESPITE THE DRYING TREND, RH IS
FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS UPCOMING
CHILLY PERIOD. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FIRE CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 36 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 36 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 32 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 35 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 38 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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