879
FXUS62 KTAE 201929
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL DEFINE THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD THANKS TO A DRY,
STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN ADDITION TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES VIA EFFECTIVE COLD-AIR
ADVECTION.
TONIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS ARE WIDESPREAD 30S WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT FREEZES. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST AND
READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH, EXPECT BELOW-FREEZING WIND
CHILLS BASICALLY AREAWIDE. IN FACT, PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE ARE LIKELY TO SEE WIND CHILLS AROUND 25 DEGREES OR LESS,
WHICH MEETS OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY - IN EFFECT FROM 3AM CST TO
8AM CST SATURDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/FORST_AND_FREEZE_INFO FOR
MORE DETAILS.
FOR TOMORROW, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
WITH A NW TO NORTHERLY WIND FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN
THE MIDWEST. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY AND CHILLY. THAT ABOUT SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S BOTH NIGHTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THE H5 TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COLDER WEATHER WILL BE EXITING
STAGE RIGHT AND BRING THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH MOSEYING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WILL SET UP SHOP IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS PUSHES COLDER WEATHER DOWN
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SO FAR TO THE NORTH WE
CAN EXPECTED A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THAT BREEZE WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN FLORIDA. AS
SUCH, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
EITHER NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THOSE WANTING A WARMER CHRISTMAS ARE IN LUCK AS A WARMING TREND
COMMENCES IN EARNEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES, 30 TO 40%, ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS IS
THE START OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT
2024 WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESPONSE TO THAT MONDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE
AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE THE
AIR MASS AND INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOSEYING IN FROM THE EAST. WE'LL HOLD THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL FEATURE AN H5 SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT,
ALLOWING RAIN TO BLOSSOM OUT AHEAD OF IT. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS TO LESS THAN 1", WITH A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 2" ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES SHOW BULK SHEAR GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 TO 40
KNOTS, BUT CAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STILL, IT'S
A TREND WORTH MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY SKC, WIND IS THE MAIN
STORY FOR THIS TAF. NORTHWESTERLIES THIS AFTN INCREASE FURTHER
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HRS.
GUSTS IN THE 20-25-KT RANGE ARE LIKELY DURING FROPA FOR
DHN/ABY/ECP BEGINNING AROUND OR JUST AFTER 0Z. FOR TLH/VLD, NW SFC
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IS EXPECTED BENEATH A 35-40-KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS SETUP SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE, WHICH IS
ACCOUNTED FOR. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE N TMRW NEAR 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT 3 DAYS THANKS TO A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN US.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, THEN
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY-MONDAY. FAVORABLE DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 30%
EACH DAY WITH A WARMING/MOISTENING TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 0.5" ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING 2" OR MORE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 35 52 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 36 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 34 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 33 53 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 33 56 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 35 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 39 53 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-
772-775.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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