580
FXUS62 KTAE 210515
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1215 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
WINDS ARE A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN FORECAST LEADING TO TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FOR EXAMPLE,
TALLAHASSEE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS HOVERING IN THE LOW 40S
AROUND 9PM, IT'S NOW IN THE MID 50S AT 10PM. THUS, TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BUT
AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT CAA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TO THE
FORECASTED TEMP.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL DEFINE THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD THANKS TO A DRY,
STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT POISED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN ADDITION TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES VIA EFFECTIVE COLD-AIR
ADVECTION.
TONIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS ARE WIDESPREAD 30S WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT FREEZES. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST AND
READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH, EXPECT BELOW-FREEZING WIND
CHILLS BASICALLY AREAWIDE. IN FACT, PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE ARE LIKELY TO SEE WIND CHILLS AROUND 25 DEGREES OR LESS,
WHICH MEETS OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY - IN EFFECT FROM 3AM CST TO
8AM CST SATURDAY. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/FORST_AND_FREEZE_INFO FOR
MORE DETAILS.
FOR TOMORROW, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
WITH A NW TO NORTHERLY WIND FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN
THE MIDWEST. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY AND CHILLY. THAT ABOUT SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S BOTH NIGHTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THE H5 TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COLDER WEATHER WILL BE EXITING
STAGE RIGHT AND BRING THE REGION NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH MOSEYING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WILL SET UP SHOP IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS PUSHES COLDER WEATHER DOWN
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SO FAR TO THE NORTH WE
CAN EXPECTED A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THAT BREEZE WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN FLORIDA. AS
SUCH, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
EITHER NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THOSE WANTING A WARMER CHRISTMAS ARE IN LUCK AS A WARMING TREND
COMMENCES IN EARNEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES, 30 TO 40%, ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS IS
THE START OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT
2024 WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SURFACE HIGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESPONSE TO THAT MONDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE
AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE THE
AIR MASS AND INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOSEYING IN FROM THE EAST. WE'LL HOLD THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL FEATURE AN H5 SHORTWAVE SLICING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT,
ALLOWING RAIN TO BLOSSOM OUT AHEAD OF IT. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS TO LESS THAN 1", WITH A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 2" ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES SHOW BULK SHEAR GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 TO 40
KNOTS, BUT CAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STILL, IT'S
A TREND WORTH MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUALLY REINFORCE A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. THE WIND WILL
LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL AROUND SUNRISE THIS SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT 3 DAYS THANKS TO A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN US.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, THEN
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY-MONDAY. FAVORABLE DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 30%
EACH DAY WITH A WARMING/MOISTENING TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 0.5" ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING 2" OR MORE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 34 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 35 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 53 31 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 56 32 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 58 30 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 53 38 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...REESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page