875
FXUS62 KTAE 210919
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
...NEW SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME EASTERLY ENOUGH TO
MODERATE THE AIR MASS WITH ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR. A WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MAINLY OUR PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ALIGNED
THIS MORNING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAR EASTERN
TEXAS. EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS, A LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS CARRYING COLD, DRY CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-
STATE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW-MID
50S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT, ONLY
THE BEACHES WILL ESCAPE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
DURING THIS PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, THEN MORE EASTERLY ON
MONDAY. ONCE THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY ENOUGH ON MONDAY,
ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN. SO AFTER ONE MORE
FROSTY START FOR INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING, MORE SUBSTANTIAL
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL GET UNDERWAY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL MOST COMMONLY BE IN THE 40S.
IN FACT, IT IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE COULD GLIDE OVER THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP A FEW SPRINKLES OR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR GEORGIA AND FL BIG BEND COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF TEXAS ON
TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL WEAKEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS IT MOVES EAST AND
ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FL/GA ATLANTIC COAST. ANY
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGE
AND COLD AIR WEDGE NOSING DOWN THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN. STILL, THAT WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE PW VALUES WILL HAVE MOISTENED INTO
THE 1-1.2 INCH RANGE, AND VERY WEAK (POSSIBLY ELEVATED) CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE DEVELOPED... GEFS PLUMES SHOW SURFACE-BASED
CAPE IS VERY UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 200 J/KG. SO 20-40 POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WED AND THU. THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, AND THE LOWER VALUES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS ON FRIDAY
WILL SUFFER A SIMILAR FATE... WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
ENCOUNTERS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL AGAIN
KEEP CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO OUR PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS
COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUALLY REINFORCE A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. THE WIND WILL
LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN EASING
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BETTER ALLOW FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND SUNDAY, MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MONDAY.
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS WILL RESPOND BY CLOCKING
AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, THEN MORE
EASTERLY ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A COLD AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL HANG ON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, AMOUNTING TO LOW HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN FROSTY
MORNINGS FOR ALL BUT BEACHFRONT DISTRICTS. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ENOUGH TO START
BRINGING A MOISTENING AIR MASS OFF THE ATLANTIC, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 54 36 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 52 31 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 32 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 53 37 57 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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