940
FXUS62 KTAE 211931
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS ALL LEVELS.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING APPEARS QUITE LIKELY AS
A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING PATTERN PERSISTS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR SW GA AND SE AL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND WITH OUR
USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS SE AL AND SW GA SEEING THE LOWER END OF THAT
RANGE. OUR COASTAL FL COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S, CURRENTLY
ELIMINATING ANY HARD FREEZE CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE BRISK WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING CONFINED IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
FROM THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE JUST ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
AREN'T THE GREATEST AT ONLY 10% TO 20%, BUT IT SIGNIFIES THE START
OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY
SUMS UP THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH CHRISTMAS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AFTER CHRISTMAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE MIDDLE 50S BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.
THE 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY WILL STEM FROM A VARIETY OF
THINGS. CHIEF AMONG THEM IS AN EASTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL DRAW IN
SOME ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVES
ROLL THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO STICK AROUND IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LESS THAN 0.5", BUT
THERE IS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE OF AREAS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA EXPERIENCING MORE THAN 1" OF
RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATES ITSELF. AS A RESULT, MINRH VALUES TOMORROW
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 30-40% INLAND AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DIP BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD. GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH TRANSITIONING OUR SURFACE WINDS TO
EASTERLY WHICH WILL SERVE TO BUMP UP OUR AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES AS
MORE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO REACH THE REGION AS WELL AS LEADING TO A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.5" OVER
THE NEXT WEEK WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING 1" OF
RAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 32 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 35 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 30 55 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 30 54 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 32 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 32 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 37 58 42 61 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...WORSTER
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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