116
FXUS62 KTAE 160513
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1213 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS/TN
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE NEAR-STORM AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THE TIMING
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR AN ARRIVAL AROUND 3-4 AM CST AT SE AL &
FL PANHANDLE WITH SOME DISCRETE CELLS POTENTIALLY OUT AHEAD OF IT
SOONER, PER THE 0Z HRRR. BY AROUND SUNRISE, THE QLCS LOOKS TO BE
CROSSING THE AL/GA BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL FL BIG BEND. A LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO CRANK UP OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECT WINDY
NON-CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. PLEASE ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS/ALERTS, ESPECIALLY WHILE ASLEEP! EXPECT SOME
SORT OF CONVECTIVE WATCH AT SOME LATER TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
A BROAD AND ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SW JET IS EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, A COLD FRONT IS STRENGTHENING AND
SHARPENING BACK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON, AND IT WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY STARTED FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER ARKANSAS, AND WE WILL WATCH THIS RACE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE, A LARGE WARM SECTOR HAS ALREADY
FORMED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A WIDE AREA GETTING
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD EAST
TONIGHT, COMBINING WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK --- IF NOT MODERATE --- CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS FOR ORGANIZING CONVECTION. JET DYNAMICS WILL
FAVOR LARGE-SCALE LIFT LATE TONIGHT, AS OUR REGION COMES UNDER THE
LIFT-FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150-KT 300 MB JET STREAK
POINTING NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF TN, KY, AND OH.
CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANCE OF IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS, THE SPC SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) ALL
THE WAY EAST TO THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CAMS
GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS THE LINE OF STORMS IN ARKANSAS RACING
EAST, FIRST ENTERING WALTON, GENEVA, AND COFFEE COUNTIES AROUND 2-4
AM CT, THEN RACING EAST FROM THERE. THE LINE SHOULD RACE PAST ABY
AROUND 6-8 AM ET, THE TLH AND VLD AROUND 8-10 AM ET. THE LINE SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER WELL ALL THE WAY PAST THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND BEYOND.
THE SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK VALID STARTING AT 7 AM ET SUNDAY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK ALL THE WAY EAST ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA.
THE SOLID LINE OF STORMS WILL COME WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 50-
65 MPH. EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE FAVORED AT THE BOOKEND OF ANY
BOWED SEGMENTS, OR IN ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING
THE MAIN LINE.
A LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL TRY TO SURFACE BEFORE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVE, BRINGING NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF
ABOUT 40 MPH IN THE LATE NIGHT ENVIRONMENT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY MORNING, AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR, AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FUNNEL IN DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
POST-FRONTAL EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TAKE A NOSE DIVE INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE
MONDAY, OUR AMAZING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL COME TO AN
END.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS SE
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ACROSS FLORIDA DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TAKE A NOSE DIVE,
DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO TROUGHINESS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, UNLIKE TOMORROW'S COLD FRONT, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IN PLACE MAY BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEW POINT/MOISTURE
RECOVERY COULD BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO REDUCED
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING
MORE OF A HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT THAN A CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
ONE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANOTHER COLD AIR BLAST LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH. CURRENTLY THERE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW COLD IT'LL GET,
BUT LET'S NOT FORGET IT IS STILL WINTER AFTER ALL, UNFORTUNATELY.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THEY'LL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE ONGOING AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT VLD WHERE
SKIES ARE SKC. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
COMMON. THE LLJ ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE WIND SHEAR CONCERNS WITH
45-50 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT. THE SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH DHN BY 10Z,
ECP AND ABY AROUND 11Z, TLH AROUND 13Z, AND VLD AROUND 14Z. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 KT, BUT 50+ KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SEVERE STORMS. CIGS QUICKLY BECOME VFR AFTER THE
STORMS WITH WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE W/NW. SKIES CLEAR AFTER 00Z
WITH LIGHTER NW WINDS AROUND 10KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS TO THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES
WEST OF APALACHICOLA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER APALACHEE
BAY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ON SEA FOG, SO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OFF THE FORGOTTEN/NATURE COASTS MAY BE CANCELLED SOONER
THAN ITS EXPIRATION TIME.
CWF SYNOPSIS: CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FEET. THIS WILL
DETEORIATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AND SEAS OF 6-9 FEET. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY AND MORE
NORTHERLY BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY TUESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE DISTRICTS ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING, DENSE FOG WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL DISTRICTS ALONG
APALACHEE BAY. STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL
GET USHERED IN BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
ON MONDAY, THEN CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
EVENING UPDATE: THE FLOOD WARNING FOR APALACHICOLA RIVER -
BLOUNTSTOWN WAS CANCELLED AFTER COORDINATION WITH SERFC.
DISCHARGES AT WOODRUFF DAM WERE REDUCED PROMPTED THE ACTION.
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BRING FLOODING TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND THEY WOULD BRING RISES ON ALL AREA RIVERS, SOME
TO NEAR BANKFULL.
OTHERWISE, THE 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST TOMORROW WILL
BRING NO FLOODING ISSUES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 39 60 38 / 90 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 39 60 42 / 80 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 34 55 35 / 70 0 0 0
ALBANY 69 33 55 34 / 90 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 70 38 59 37 / 90 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 72 41 64 38 / 90 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 71 41 59 46 / 90 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ730-
755-765-775.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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