432
FXUS62 KTAE 162313
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
613 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS
QUICKLY ARRIVED OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE IS PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS ALL
THE WAY BACK NORTH THROUGH ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND BEYOND. SO SOME
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST PARTWAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AND THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CLOCKS AROUND, WE SHOULD LOSE A LOT OF THE POST-FRONTAL
STRATO-CU LATE TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S. IF WIND CAN DIE DOWN ENOUGH, MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST
FROSTY MORNING IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING OFF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW GULF
WHERE IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. DUE TO
COOLER, DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND CONUS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY NEVER PENETRATE INLAND AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
OUR REGION REMAINING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES
ACROSS OUR NE GULF WATERS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ASCENT LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT, BUT WITH
DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THERE IS
NO CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF AREAS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM COMES ANOTHER
SHOT OF WINTER, WITH COLD, DRY, DENSE AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING OUR TEMPS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A STRUGGLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT ALL SITES. STRATOCU OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA MAY
FILTER INTO THE TRI STATE REGION WITH BASES 030-035. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY VFR WILL RULE WITH NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING IN SPEEDS BELOW
10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
POST-FRONTAL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TRANSITIONS TO ADVISORY LEVEL
OVERNIGHT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL
START WITH AREAS OF FROST. ON WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRACKING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING THICK CLOUDS
AND A COLD, SOAKING WETTING RAIN. DUE TO LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND
THICK CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME DISPERSION WILL BE POOR ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BRING FLOODING TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND THEY WOULD BRING RISES ON ALL AREA RIVERS, SOME
TO NEAR BANKFULL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 38 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 38 59 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 33 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 33 56 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 37 59 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 40 64 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 40 58 45 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-
772.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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