617
FXUS62 KTAE 170747
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN, EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME COMPLETELY
CALM OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN, ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY INTO
THE EASTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. THE GULF COAST WILL BE IN THE RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140+ KT JET, WHICH WILL SPUR CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
TO ITS EAST. MODEL TRENDS (WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER) HAVE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, WITH THE WARM SECTOR LIKELY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. THUS, A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME ACROSS THE AREA, BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS OF
1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES OVERRIDING THE WARM FRONT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 560S
TO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT COULD MAKE IT TO THE UPPER
60S DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR AREA TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERTAKES THE EASTERN US, SENDING US
BACK TO WINTER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OUR
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE (40-60%). LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S. IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED,
WIND CHILLS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, POSSIBLY
REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A SLOW MODERATING TREND
BEGINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH BRINGS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 15 KNOT GUSTS
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THESE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN US. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. CAUTIONARY TO LOW-END ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AFTER THIS
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
RECENT RAINS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM
DEVELOPING TODAY, DESPITE A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE FAIR TO GOOD, BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY,
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MOVE IN, EXPECT LOWER DISPERSIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR A WETTING RAIN WITH CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST. OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE HIGH-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD APPROACH 3 INCHES. OVERALL, THIS SHOULDN'T CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS AS THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER A LONGER DURATION, BUT SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEAR LIGHT.
THE ONLY RIVER CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IS THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN. OTHERWISE, PARTS OF THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE, FLINT, OCHLOCKONEE, AND KINCHAFOONEE ARE IS OR
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE. THE MID-WEEK RAINS COULD CAUSE
SOME RISES ON RIVERS, BUT MOST WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IT'LL
TAKE ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO PUSH RIVERS INTO MINOR FLOOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 34 66 50 / 0 0 0 50
PANAMA CITY 59 39 66 51 / 0 0 0 70
DOTHAN 55 34 61 45 / 0 0 0 70
ALBANY 54 32 61 45 / 0 0 0 60
VALDOSTA 58 33 67 49 / 0 0 0 50
CROSS CITY 62 36 71 51 / 0 0 0 30
APALACHICOLA 59 41 62 53 / 0 0 0 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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