342
FXUS62 KTAE 172318
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED, AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE IN PLACE ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A
BIT WARMER THAN THAT IF CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE SUBSTANTIAL,
BUT THE FORECAST ERRS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SINCE FREEZING
TEMPS/FROST COULD IMPACT EARLY PLANT GROWTH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING OFF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW GULF
WHERE IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. DUE TO COOLER,
DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND CONUS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY NEVER
PENETRATE INLAND AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO OUR REGION
REMAINING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES ACROSS OUR
NE GULF WATERS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT, BUT WITH DEW POINTS STRUGGLING
TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THERE IS NO CURRENT EXPECTATION
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM COMES ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER,
WITH COLD, DRY, DENSE AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTH BRINGING OUR
TEMPS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON
WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A BREAKOUT OVER 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING TANK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN US. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. CAUTIONARY TO LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE MARINE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
RECENT RAINS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM
DEVELOPING TODAY AND TOMORROW DESPITE A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LOW DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF IT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BRING FLOODING TO SOME URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND THEY WOULD BRING RISES ON ALL AREA RIVERS, SOME
TO NEAR BANKFULL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 35 66 49 58 / 0 0 50 100
PANAMA CITY 39 66 50 60 / 0 0 70 100
DOTHAN 33 62 44 55 / 0 0 70 90
ALBANY 31 62 44 53 / 0 0 50 90
VALDOSTA 35 66 48 57 / 0 0 40 100
CROSS CITY 36 71 51 64 / 0 0 30 90
APALACHICOLA 42 63 53 60 / 0 0 50 100
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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