730
FXUS62 KTAE 181759
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1259 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS UP TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY WITH NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND IN THE UPPER 60S.
AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT, ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
FALLING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER SHOULD BE SEEING RAIN AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BELOW AS IT SPREADS
EASTWARDS. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE WARM FRONT
STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA OR
OVER OUR FAR OFFSHORE ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW
TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE LAND AREAS, PRECLUDING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING,
GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY A COLD,
STEADY, MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER
AIR AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE WIREGRASS TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT
AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN THE WIREGRASS AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. A MODERATING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, BUT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COOL, ONLY REACHING THE 50S, RISING
INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN NEAR 70 EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS
LIKEWISE WILL RISE FROM THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 40S THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATER
THIS EVENING, OVERCAST CEILINGS FORM AND BEGIN TO DESCEND WHILE
STILL REMAINING AT VFR CONDITIONS. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE RAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 08Z FOR KECP AND KDHN, AND
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST BRINGING RAIN TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES
AS THE SUN RISES. WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN, CEILINGS WILL
DRASTICALLY LOWER ACROSS ALL SITES AND VISIBILITY IS REDUCED,
RESULTING IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN KTLH, KECP, AND KVLD AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN KDHN AND KABY AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND EVEN SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THESE SETUPS WHERE WINDS
USUALLY OVERPERFORM, AND HAVE RAISED WINDS ABOVE NBM AS A RESULT.
THUS, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA STARTING AT 9 AM CT WEDNESDAY.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS... EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
LOW AND POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ASIDE FROM LOW DISPERSIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 TO
2.0 INCHES. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGHER DISPERSIONS AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED BUT RECENT
RAINS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE, SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES, BUT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT, THIS SHOULDN'T RESULT IN FLOODING
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS AND WILL BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD,
BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PARTS OF THE
FLINT, CHATTAHOOCHEE, OCHLOCKONEE, AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS ARE
IN OR ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE, BUT NO ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 50 57 39 / 0 90 90 0
PANAMA CITY 66 51 58 35 / 0 90 100 0
DOTHAN 61 46 54 30 / 0 90 90 0
ALBANY 61 45 52 33 / 0 80 90 10
VALDOSTA 65 47 56 38 / 0 80 90 10
CROSS CITY 70 51 63 42 / 0 60 90 10
APALACHICOLA 62 55 62 39 / 0 80 100 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page