063
FXUS62 KTAE 190116
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE MAIN CHANGE OF NOTE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO ADJUST PATCHY FOG
PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION IS AROUND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES, INFLUXES OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER TODAY, AND BETTER RH EXIST. THIS
UPDATED FORECAST NOW SHOWS PATCHY FOG GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD
TOWARDS I-75 MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE, AWAY FROM THE
AXIS OF POP SPREADING FROM THE WEST. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE. MOST FOLKS WILL BE WAKING UP TO RAINY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
WILL BRING US ANOTHER DOSE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1" TO 1.5" ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE THAN 2" OF RAIN BY THE
TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. FORTUNATELY, THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAIN IS PASSING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT WE'LL REMAIN ON THE
COOL AND STABLE SIDE, I.E. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE DAMP AND CHILLY WITH
TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 40S AND 50S WHILE IT'S RAINING. A LITTLE
BIT OF LATE-DAY SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SNEAK CLOSER TO
60, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
BUT THERE'S ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE LINGERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT, BUT NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A RETURN TO WINTER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT, WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE 11 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AND ANY
EARLY PLANT GROWTH COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S AND 50S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN THE MEANTIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN GULF,
MAKING ITS WAY OVER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE EARLIEST REASONABLE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR
RAINFALL IS AROUND 07-8Z AT ECP/DHN AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME BATCHES OF HEAVY RAIN MIXED IN. RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING. CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW THIS PATTERN AS CONDITIONS
DETEORIATE FROM WEST TO EAST, STARTING 11-12Z WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR
AND IFR. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
IN ECP AND DHN, WITH CIGS LIFTING ABOVE 1000 FT TO MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 807 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS 12-14 KTS
WITH 2-FT SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS AT BUOY 42036
(WEST TAMPA) THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOW MARITIME
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO SW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE TX COAST.
CWF SYNOPSIS: EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND REACH ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH 3 TO 5
FEET. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL BRING 0.5" TO 1.5" OF RAIN.
DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHER DISPERSIONS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT RECENT RAIN SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE, SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES, BUT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT, THIS SHOULDN'T RESULT IN FLOODING
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS AND WILL BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD,
BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PARTS OF THE
FLINT, CHATTAHOOCHEE, OCHLOCKONEE, AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS ARE
IN OR ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE, BUT NO ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 57 39 51 / 80 100 20 0
PANAMA CITY 50 59 35 50 / 90 100 10 0
DOTHAN 45 54 30 46 / 80 90 20 0
ALBANY 44 52 34 47 / 60 90 20 0
VALDOSTA 48 57 40 51 / 60 100 20 0
CROSS CITY 51 63 43 58 / 50 90 20 0
APALACHICOLA 52 60 39 51 / 80 100 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
UPDATE...IG3/AW
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MERRIFIELD/IG3/AW
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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