618
FXUS62 KTAE 191048
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
548 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY,
SKIRTING JUST SOUTH OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM, A
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO, SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-10 WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TO THE EAST.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH CONTINUING, WIND CHILLS COULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. REMEMBER TO USE
HEATING DEVICES SAFELY AND PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR PETS FROM THE
COLD.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A COLD AND BLUSTERY START TO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS CREATE WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS FLORIDA AND WILL LIKELY NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AS STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES
BUT WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW MPH SLOWER AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES EAST AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST. TO WHAT DEGREE
WILL LARGELY DEPEND HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WE CAN ACHIEVE
OVERNIGHT AMIDST THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORM TRACK WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN
THIS PATTERN SEEMS INSIGNIFICANT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY
DRY PATTERN IN PLACE OUTSIDE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THESE CHANCES HAVE STEADILY DECREASED OVER THE
LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES AS THE POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS IS
ANTICIPATED SO IT'S LIKELY WE'LL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
WIDESPREAD RA CONTINUES THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING TO IFR, PERHAPS LIFR AT TIMES. RA WILL REDUCE
VSBYS TO IFR OR MVFR. RA WILL MOVE OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHRA LINGERING BEHIND. CIGS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RISE
AGAIN, ONLY REACHING MVFR IN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. DHN AND ECP MAY EVEN BREAK OUT INTO VFR CLOSE TO 12Z.
E/NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE N/NW LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INCREASING TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY
AND REACH ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY TONIGHT. RAIN
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN IN ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH POOR
TO FAIR DISPERSIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AROUND 10-15 MPH, AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO
THURSDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY, LEADING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS. NORTHEASTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE.
COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
FIRST BEING TODAY, AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, AND INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO
1.0 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO UPSTREAM DAM RELEASES AND NOT LOCAL
RAINFALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 40 51 27 / 100 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 57 36 51 28 / 100 10 0 0
DOTHAN 52 30 47 23 / 100 10 0 0
ALBANY 51 35 47 23 / 100 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 41 52 27 / 100 20 0 0
CROSS CITY 62 44 59 28 / 100 20 0 0
APALACHICOLA 59 40 53 31 / 100 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ007>012-108.
GA...NONE.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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