146
FXUS62 KTAE 200507
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1207 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE MAIN CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE INCREASING SKY COVER,
RAISING MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY ABOUT A COUPLE
DEGREES, AND SLIGHTLY RAISING WINDS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK
FROM THE APPALACHIANS DOWN TO THE GULF COAST WITH NO SIGNS OF
ERODING LOCALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE, COLD-AIR ADVECTION MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE SUPPRESSED OUTGOING-LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER, WE STILL EXPECT CHILLY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN SE AL & PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, A PESKY CLOUD DECK LINGERS THE
REST OF THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. MUCH COLDER AIR IS
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS A STRONG 1050MB HIGH OOZES OUT OF
CANADA AND OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
(WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN 25 IN FL AND 20 IN SW GA/SE AL) REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS MADE TO EXPAND IT EAST,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE CHILLIER DAYS WE'VE HAD SINCE
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT BACK IN JANUARY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA WITH MOST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES
SNEAKING INTO THE LOWER 50S LATE IN THE DAY, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN FL
BIG BEND GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S. ALL THAT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
MOST OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A RETURN TO WINTER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE 11 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AND ANY
EARLY PLANT GROWTH COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND 50S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. THE
NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST OR OVER THE WATERS. IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN THE
MEANTIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ENVELOPS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND
18-22 KT BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 924 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
OFFSHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20
KTS WITH 4-FT SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS THIS
EVENING.
CWF SYNOPSIS: FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN IN ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO A WETTING
RAIN OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONGER NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
FIRST BEING TODAY, AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, AND INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO
1.0 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO UPSTREAM DAM RELEASES AND NOT LOCAL
RAINFALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 27 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 51 28 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 46 23 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 47 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 27 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 27 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 52 30 53 41 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ007>012-108.
GA...NONE.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-
772.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page