503
FXUS62 KTAE 200742
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
242 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING
BEHIND IT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES, HOWEVER, AS A STRONG
1045 MB HIGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY DECOUPLE. OTHERWISE, THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WOULD SUPPORT GOING LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE
IS SLIGHTLY WARMER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID-20S IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA WEST OF THE FLINT.
ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND 5-10 MPH, WIND CHILLS OF 13-20 ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN LOWS TONIGHT CAUSES SOME TROUBLE WITH WHERE A
HARD FREEZE (LOWS 25 OR COLDER) WOULD OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO LEESBURG. THIS
IS WHERE I HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING (FOR A HARD FREEZE) FOR
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ONE GOES IN THE AREA.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE RECENT WARM WEATHER, THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
PLANTS OR CROPS ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES
AGAINST THE COLD. ADDITIONALLY, DRESS IN LAYERS, BRING PETS INDOORS,
AND USE HEATING DEVICES SAFELY. THOSE IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD
ALSO TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
FRIDAY MORNING STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
PERIOD BUT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND. THE COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN US AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, THE CHANCES AT GETTING RAIN WITH THESE
WAVES HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
WHILE WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS OF NOTE APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
EACH DAY WITH LOCATIONS LIKELY HITTING THE MID 70S BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ENVELOPS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND
18-22 KT BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S
COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN IN ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES IN THE APALACHEE BAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND 3,000-4,000
FOOT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS
TODAY, HIGHEST IN THE APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST. TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASE FRIDAY AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS
EXPECTED. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY WITH FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S, DROPPING INTO THE 20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN RISING AGAIN
INTO THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONLY
MINOR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE ALONG THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR
BLOUNTSTOWN WHERE DAM RELEASES ARE BRINGING THE RIVER TO MINOR
FLOOD. ELSEWHERE, SOME INCREASES TO ACTION STAGE ON AREA RIVERS IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL. HOWEVER, NO RIVERINE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE THE
APALACHICOLA AT BLOUNTSTOWN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 29 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 50 29 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 45 25 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 46 25 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 58 28 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 52 31 53 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>012-
108.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ120>124-126-
142.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ALZ065>068.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-
772.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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