459
FXUS62 KTAE 210551
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1251 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO WHOLESALE CHANGES NEEDED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND HARD
FREEZE REMAIN IN EFFECT. OVER THE GULF WATERS, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM ET.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR
REGION AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL US,
BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR SE AL AND SW
GA, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN, AS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 20S. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA IN ADDITION TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SE AL AND SW GA. TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB BEYOND THE LOW 50S DESPITE CLEAR TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL SIMILARLY REBOUND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY TO THE
MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. NO
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING
FURTHER AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN IN ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS OUR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ZONES IN
THE APALACHEE BAY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MINRH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH MINRH VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINOR
FLOODING ONGOING ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. NO OTHER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 38 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 49 30 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 32 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 35 63 41 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 52 42 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ114.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>126-142-
144.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ065>068.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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