364
FXUS62 KTAE 211122
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MIDDLE 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT,
FROST IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS TO KEEP DEW POINTS
BELOW 50 DEGREES. THUS, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN TO
FORCE IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE GULF LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL AGAIN PLACE US ON THE COOLER, STABLE, SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITY/CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WE'LL START TO SEE A CLOCK AROUND FROM GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW TO
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT BUT NOT
MUCH SHEAR OR INSTABILITY. WITH DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE SUPPRESSED OR MAY
BE LIMITED TO SHALLOW STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON
SATURDAY TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S BY MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING GRADUALLY
WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
MINRH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS
BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINRH VALUES INCREASING A
BIT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 52 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 38 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 50 30 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 30 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 52 42 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>126-142-
144.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>068.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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