231
FXUS62 KTAE 260550
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY, A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AT 700 MB IS OVER THE FORECAST REGION, ALOFT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVERHEAD AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. MOVING INTO THE
NIGHT, CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CLOSELY.
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL INHIBIT MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING TO DROP OFF BELOW THE MID 50S
AS IT WILL REDUCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALLOW FOR THERE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER
TUESDAY MORNING THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING, VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGHER.
CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK ONCE THE SUN HAS FULLY RISEN ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY. HIGH REMAINING NEARBY WILL RESULT
IN CALMER WINDS WITH PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
A BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LEADS TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS FRI W/SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 HPA HEIGHTS
AROUND 576 TO 582 DECAMETERS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
ON THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER DUE TO FAVORABLE LONGWAVE/RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S, ALTHOUGH
CLOUDINESS ON THU MORNING MAY DAMPEN THIS A BIT. A DRY AND
COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND, AND
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TURBULENT MIXING ON THU, WENT CLOSER
TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. ANY COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED. HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA-FLINT RIVER BASIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HRS - I.E., ECP/TLH/DHN. CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT
IS ON THE LOW SIDE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE
PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AOB 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. EASTERLY
WIND SURGES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET OVER
THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT OTHER NECESSARY CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET. DISPERSION WILL BE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
EVEN WITH THIS WIND SHIFT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
PORTIONS OF THE AUCILLA RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL THROUGH ACTION
STAGE. A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 51 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 48 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 49 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 51 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 59 73 60 72 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MND
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...MND
HYDROLOGY...LF
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