271
FXUS62 KTAE 260821
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
421 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
LARGE-SCALE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
DIPPING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A
LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN US. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AND
LOCAL WEBCAMS ALSO SHOW ISOLATED FOG (LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES)
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING HRS FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADVISORY
DECISIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH'S AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT DRY FRONT ARE
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF HAS US IN
NW FLOW FROM 700 MB DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL. NORTHERLY BREEZES DEVELOP
AS THE HIGH TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, THUS
REINFORCING THE DRY AIRMASS WHILE KEEPING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
PINNED TO THE COAST. GRADUAL 500-MB HEIGHT RISES TO 578-579 DM
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN WITH
UPPER CIRRUS CLOUDS. SUCH CONDITIONS INTRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS.
FOR TONIGHT, NE FLOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD-AIR-DAMMING-LIKE
SCENARIO WHERE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID/UPPER 40S) FILTER
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WHILE LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE GET DOWN TO THE LOW/MID 50S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN
RESPONSE, OUR SURFACE FLOW WILL CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY ON
THURSDAY, EASTERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL HAVE OCCURRED TO BRING A RETURN OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OF NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL
ENCOUNTER AN AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE UNDERGONE A GOOD BIT OF
MOISTENING, THANKS TO A LONG FETCH OF WIND FLOWING FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES INTO OUR REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL
MOISTEN INTO THE 1.3-1.6 INCH RANGE, WITH 1.5 INCHES BEING A CRUDE
THRESHOLD FOR DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. WEAK SURFACE- BASED
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE
INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMATTERING OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF WE
CAN GET ENOUGH FOCUS FROM EITHER THE SEABREEZE OR CONFLUENT BANDS
IN THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO IN FAVOR ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THAT LOOSE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THERE IS NO COLD FRONT IN
THIS SETUP, AND THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A A SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP FOR US. THERE WILL BE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY PUSH A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND
GUSTY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE.
A MORE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PARENT LOW WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY, AND THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE WILL COME ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
FROM SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT THERE IS NOT YET A CLEAR CONSENSUS
ON HOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL OVERLAP. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED. HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
AREAS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA-FLINT RIVER BASIN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS - I.E., ECP/TLH/DHN.
CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT IS ON THE LOW SIDE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS
SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THIS AFTN AOB 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS TODAY, BRINGING A TURN
TO NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS EVENING WHERE IT IS NOT DISRUPTED BY THE
NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A TURN TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL COME WITH NOCTURNAL SURGE OF FRESH EASTERLIES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND, CLOCKING THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AROUND MORE
SOUTHERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOSTERS A DRY AIRMASS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AFTER
SOME ISOLATED FOG THIS MORNING, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ARRIVES DURING
THE AFTERNOON THANK TO CRITICALLY LOW RH DOWN TO MID 20S AND HIGH
DISPERSIONS (VIA 5-6KFT+ MIXING HEIGHTS) AREAWIDE UNDER PREVAILING
NORTH WINDS. THE LATTER SHOULD KEEP ANY SEABREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST.
A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY FLOW KICK STARTS A MOISTENING TREND ON
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE MORE APPARENT WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PUSHES FROM SE TO NW. EXPECT
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH TO LINGER FOR POINTS EASTWARD.
BY FRIDAY, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLIES PROVIDES MORE EFFECTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS A RESULT. RAIN
CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH, WHICH
WILL BE WELL SHY OF CAUSING ANY HYDROLOGY ISSUES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 82 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 81 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 84 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 56 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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